Weekly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures upcoming
In a recent development, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has announced revised inflation expectations for the end of 2025 and 2026, suggesting a slow but steady decline in inflation rates.
According to the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey released in June 2025, inflation is expected to drop below 30% by the end of 2025, with forecasts specifically at around 29.86%. This is a downward revision from a previous forecast of about 30.35%. The survey also indicates that inflation 12 months ahead (mid-2026) is anticipated to fall to 24.56%, down from a previous expectation of 25.06%.
The CBRT has maintained its year-end 2025 CPI midpoint forecast at 24%, with an upper band of 29%, expecting inflation to remain within this band through the year. The inflation decline is attributed to aggressive monetary tightening since mid-2023 and favorable energy prices.
The projected inflation rate for June 2022 in Ankara, Turkey, is not directly stated in the available search results. However, historical data shows that Turkey experienced extremely high inflation in 2022 with monthly inflation peaking at 85.51% in October 2022, indicating very high inflation throughout 2022, including June. The CBRT has been focused on reducing inflation from those high levels since mid-2023.
The CBRT has also kept the policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate, unchanged at 46% in June. The overnight lending rate and the overnight borrowing rate were also kept at 49% and 44.5%, respectively. The bank will hold three more Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings in the remainder of the year, on Sept. 11, Oct. 23, and Dec. 11.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will release the inflation data for June on July 3. The annual inflation rate in May slowed down from 37.86% to 35.41%. The monthly June inflation, as per a Central Bank survey, is expected to be 1.6%. If these expectations hold true, it would represent a decrease from the 1.5% increase observed in May.
In summary, the CBRT's revised inflation expectations for the end of 2025 and 2026 indicate a slow but steady decline in inflation rates. However, the ongoing inflationary pressure as of mid-2025 remains a concern. The bank will continue its efforts to reduce inflation through monetary policy tightening and will release the June inflation data on July 3.
| Period | Inflation Expectation | |---------------------|-----------------------------------------| | June 2022 (historical) | Very high, with monthly inflation in the range of 60–85% nationwide (peak 85.51% in October 2022; June likely very elevated) | | End of 2025 | Approximately 29.86%, projected to fall below 30% | | End of 2026 (24 months ahead) | Around 24.56%, a downward revision from previous forecasts |
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to lower inflation rates in the business sector, with a forecast of approximately 29.86% for the end of 2025 and a further decrease to around 24.56% for the end of 2026, as revealed in the revised inflation expectations.To achieve this change in the finance industry, the CBRT has been implementing aggressive monetary tightening since mid-2023 and aiming to maintain inflation within the projected range through the year.
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