Unpredictable March Madness 2025: Anticipated Underdogs Poised to Shatter Your NCAA Tournament Bracket
The NCAA Tournament gets underway on Thursday, and bracket enthusiasts everywhere are studying their picks and searching for potential underdog victors to shake up the bracket. While the odds heavily favor the top seeds to reach the Final Four, history has shown that not all upsets are equal. Here's an analysis of the most likely seeds to spring an upset, based on historical data.
March Madness Bracket Seeds Most Likely to Pull Off Upsets
No. 15 Seeds
Despite only being one slot lower in seeding, No. 15 seeds have a history of outperforming No. 16 seeds in the tournament and are five times more likely to win their opening game. Some recent Cinderella stories include Princeton beating Arizona in 2023, Saint Peter's toppling Kentucky in 2022, and Oral Roberts shocking Ohio State in 2021. Even more impressive, No. 15 seeds have a 4-7 record in the second round, indicating that when they get hot, they can make a serious run.
No. 12 Seeds
The No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup is notorious for bracket mayhem, and for good reason. Historically, No. 12 seeds have won 33% of their encounters with No. 5 seeds, which translates to at least one No. 12 seed advancing each year. This upset trend is similar to that of a No. 10 seed against a No. 7 seed, despite facing a higher-ranked opponent. The 5/12 upset trend is a staple of March Madness strategy, making No. 12 seeds prime candidates for early-round surprises.
No. 11 Seeds
If you're hunting for deep Cinderella runs, No. 11 seeds are your best bet. Since 2011, a staggering fifteen No. 11 seeds have made it to the Sweet 16. Remarkably, six of these teams have even advanced to the Final Four, including the likes of 2024 NC State, 2021 UCLA, 2018 Loyola-Chicago, 2011 VCU, 2006 George Mason, and 1986 LSU. These teams may not have made it to the championship game, but they've proven to be consistent contenders. No. 11 seeds have an undefeated 6-0 record against No. 4, No. 7, and No. 9 seeds and an impressive 4-6 against No. 1 seeds.
No. 8/9 Seeds
Although No. 8 and No. 9 seeds are closely matched in the first round, their real danger lies in the second round. If an 8/9 winner can knock off a top-seeded team, their path to the Elite Eight becomes significantly easier. Historically, No. 8 and No. 9 seeds have posted a 23-29 record against teams seeded No. 2-7. In particular, they have recorded winning records against No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the Sweet 16, proving that when they survive the early rounds, they can go much further than expected.
Final Takeaway: Which Seeds Deserve Your Attention?
A No. 15 seed upset is always entertaining but challenging to predict. For a more reliable first-round upset, the 5/12 matchup is your best bet. If you're seeking deep Cinderella runs, No. 11 seeds have the strongest track record. If you want a high-risk, high-reward bracket, keep an eye on No. 8 and No. 9 seeds aiming to take down a No. 1 seed, especially with injuries hampering both Duke and Houston. History shows that once an 8 or 9 seed topples a top team, their run may be far from over.
The NCAA Tournament bracketology indicates a notable likelihood for upsets in the early rounds, particularly from No. 15 seeds who have surpassed expectations in earlier tournaments and have a 4-7 record in the second round. The No. 12 seeds, known for causing bracket mayhem against the No. 5 seeds, have a 33% success rate in their encounters, making them prime candidates for early-round surprises. For deep Cinderella runs, the No. 11 seeds, with a consistent track record of making it to the Sweet 16 since 2011, are the best choice. In a high-risk, high-reward bracket strategy, No. 8 and No. 9 seeds targeting top-seeded teams like injured Duke and Houston must also be watched closely, considering their potential to reach the Elite Eight if they manage to win initial rounds.
