Ukraine's Oil Strikes Spark Russian Gasoline Shortages, Challenging Putin's Grip
Ukraine's systematic destruction of Russian oil refineries has led to gasoline shortages across Russia, with nearly 40 percent of refining capacity offline. This comes as the country grapples with economic crises and a waning popularity for President Vladimir Putin, who has been in power for over two decades.
Since August 2025, Ukraine has targeted 16 out of 38 Russian oil refineries, causing significant disruptions. This has resulted in about 2 percent of Russian gas stations no longer selling gasoline and 20 percent of domestic demand going unmet in ten regions. Experts are divided on whether these economic crises could threaten Putin's grip on power, citing both historical precedents and authoritarian resilience.
Putin's popularity has fluctuated over the years. While it has waned recently, he has used military actions like the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine to boost it. The central bank's decision to raise its key interest rate to 21 percent in the fall of 2024 has also had a significant impact. This move doubled debt in four years and tripled it in six, contributing to an inflation rate that reached over 10 percent by spring 2025. The price of potatoes, among other goods, has been significantly affected by this wage-price spiral.
President Volodimir Zelensky views the gasoline crisis as an effective sanction against Russia, significantly reducing the Russian oil industry and the war effort. In response, Russia has banned gasoline exports by the end of the year. Despite these challenges, Putin remains the most powerful man in Russia and potentially the richest in the world, indicating that the economic crises may not yet pose an immediate threat to his rule.
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