Trump's tariff demand sets off worrying signs about Turkey-Russia energy commerce
In the heart of the Mediterranean, Turkey finds itself in a precarious position, heavily reliant on Russian energy imports to fuel its economy. As of mid-2025, Russia is Turkey’s second-largest trading partner, with energy imports worth approximately $26 billion out of $43.29 billion total imports from Russia[1].
Russian oil accounts for 61% of Turkey's oil imports, and natural gas comprises 33% of Turkey's gas imports[1]. This energy trade relationship is primarily facilitated by the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines, which together have a capacity of nearly 48 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually[1]. However, efforts to turn Turkey into a Russian gas hub have been hindered by EU policies aiming to phase out Russian gas by 2027[1].
The potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on countries buying Russian energy exports—a proposal by former U.S. President Donald Trump in mid-2025—poses a significant risk to this energy trade relationship[2]. If implemented, such tariffs could disrupt Turkey's imports of Russian oil and gas by making these imports prohibitively expensive or politically sensitive due to U.S. penalties.
Turkey's domestic gas production covers only 4% of its consumption, making it difficult for the country to replace Russian gas in the short term[1]. Furthermore, Turkey’s ambitions to become a regional energy hub via Russian gas transit to Europe have been hampered by EU policies[1].
Russia also has ongoing investments in Turkish nuclear power, indicating a broader energy partnership, though this may be vulnerable to geopolitical shifts[3].
In the event of a U.S. tariff on Russian energy exports, Turkey could face economic and geopolitical challenges. The country may be forced to seek alternative suppliers or pay higher costs, complicating its energy security and strategic positioning[1][2].
The way sanctions are applied will largely depend on the political atmosphere between Washington and Ankara. Turkey's geographic proximity to Russia creates a necessary trade relationship, and the country also maintains diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Experts interviewed by BBC Turkish suggest that the direct impact on Turkey may remain limited unless the U.S. adopts a stricter stance[2].
In 2024, Turkey's trade volume with the United States totaled $32.6 billion, comprising $16.4 billion in exports and $16.2 billion in imports[1]. Given the currently positive state of relations, the risk of the proposed tariffs may ultimately be lower. However, the potential impact on Turkey's energy security and strategic positioning cannot be underestimated.
[1] Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) [2] BBC Turkish [3] Marmara University’s Faculty of Economics, Professor Mahmut Tekce
- Turkey's trade with Russia, particularly its energy imports worth approximately $26 billion, makes Russia Turkey's second-largest trading partner as of mid-2025.
- Russian oil accounts for 61% of Turkey's oil imports, and natural gas comprises 33% of Turkey's gas imports, mostly facilitated by the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines.
- If U.S. tariffs on Russian energy exports are imposed, Turkey could face economic and geopolitical challenges, as it may be forced to seek alternative suppliers or pay higher costs, impacting its energy security and strategic positioning.
- While the risk of U.S. tariffs may be lower given the currently positive state of relations between the two countries, the potential impact on Turkey's energy security and strategic positioning cannot be underestimated.
