Trade Still On The Up: WTO's Surprising Prediction
Freelance Correspondent, lz Frankfurt
Trade transcends Trump's tariff intimidation globally
Surprisingly, the world trade landscape appears more resilient than anticipated. Despite the Red Sea's cargo ship attacks and the looming threats of protectionist policies by the new US president, the World Trade Organization's (WTO) trade barometer hovers around 102.7 points, just a tad below September's 103 points. "Trade continued to grow modestly in the fourth quarter," the WTO's latest report asserted. However, economic uncertainties are casting a darker shadow over the outlook.
‟Your guess is as good as mine"
While the report from the WTO doesn't elaborate on specifics, recent insider chatter hints at a possible growth contraction in 2025. elaborated leaks suggest that global merchandise trade may drop by 0.2%, a significant decline from earlier projections[1]. North America is said to be the hardest hit, with exports estimated to tumble by 12.6%. This grim forecast is partly driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, including US tariffs and retaliatory trade measures, elevating policy uncertainty and market volatility.
To soften the blow, temporary suspensions of some tariff measures have been implemented to prevent a steeper drop. Still, downside risks loom large; if tensions escalate any further, global goods trade could plummet by as much as 1.5% this year[2]. Countries heavily reliant on exports stand to be the most affected.
However, there's a silver lining: global services trade is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2025[3]. Despite a 1 percentage point contraction compared to previous predictions, this growth could provide a cushion against the anticipated decline in goods trade[4].
```markdownSummary Table: WTO Trade Forecasts (2025)
| Trade Category | Growth Forecast ||----------------------|----------------|| Merchandise (Goods) | -0.2% || Services | +4.0% |```
Economic forecasters remain wary of the tumultuous trade environment, with trade wars, protectionism, and rising policy uncertainty hovering on the horizon[5]. Stay tuned for further updates as global trade navigates these treacherous waters.
The impending contraction in global merchandise trade, as indicated by recent insider leaks, may be a cause for concern for the industry sector. The finance industry, meanwhile, could potentially find some stability in the projected growth of global services trade in 2025, despite a slight reduction in the forecast compared to previous predictions.
