Tajikistan's Rogun Dam: Overblown Project - According to a New Report
Tajikistan's Rogun Dam project under scrutiny as alternative solutions gain traction
A newly published expert report challenges the feasibility and wisdom of Tajikistan's proposed Rogun Dam expansion, contending that the venture could prove an economic and environmental disaster for Central Asia's poorest nation and the entire region, respectively. The $6.4 billion dam project, initially envisioned in the 1970s and revived by Tajik officials in 2016, faces growing criticism due to its escalating costs, questionable environmental impact, and potential outdatedness given recent technological advancements in renewable energy generation.
The Kazakhstan-based environmental organization, Rivers Without Boundaries, compiled the report, which emphasizes the need for a comprehensive review of alternative energy solutions for Tajikistan. Initiated before a scheduled World Bank Board of Directors meeting on December 17 to discuss financing options for the Rogun project, the report investigates eight different scenarios for achieving the dam's primary objective of maintaining domestic energy needs while generating revenue through power exports.
Scenario analysis harbors promising alternatives for Tajikistan's energy future, with a mix of renewable power generation and the completion of a significantly smaller Rogun Dam suggesting the optimal solution. By 2030-2031, this approach could reportedly alleviate winter energy deficits and reduce climate change risks for the energy sector and the economy.
Tajik officials have relied on outdated environmental and social impact assessments for the Rogun project, the report contends, noting that advancements in wind and solar power technologies and heightened regional risks stemming from global warming were not adequately considered. The report's authors argue that failure to assess alternative solutions throughout the project's history has led to repeated planning mistakes with profoundly negative consequences.
When completed at its proposed height of 335 meters, the Rogun Dam would boast an annual power-generating capacity of 3,600 megawatts, roughly equivalent to the combined output of three nuclear plants. However, the report suggests that when the facility reaches full generating capacity, its electricity costs could become prohibitive compared to renewable sources. Construction costs for Rogun are estimated to be up to four times higher than those for solar power plants (SPPs).
According to the report, a new environmental impact study and a comprehensive regional water-usage framework should precede any additional financing for the Rogun project. Critics allege that alterations to the Vaksh and Amu Darya rivers' water flows by Rogun construction have already degraded regional ecosystems and exacerbated irrigation difficulties in dry years. Furthermore, the draft environmental impact assessment currently in use indicates that the Rogun project will still harbor a significant carbon footprint, potentially slowing down efforts to decarbonize Central Asian energy systems.
The future of energy production for Tajikistan and the surrounding region hinges on a delicate balance between economic development, environmental preservation, and social responsibility. A thoughtful reconsideration of the Rogun Dam project in light of evolving technologies, growing environmental concerns, and other alternative energy solutions appears to be not only prudent but essential for the long-term prosperity and sustainability of Central Asia.
- The expert report advocates for a reevaluation of Tajikistan's energy future, proposing a mix of renewable power generation and a considerably smaller Rogun Dam to address climate change risks and winter energy deficits by 2030-2031.
- The report argues that Tajik officials have overlooked advancements in wind and solar power technologies and regional risks due to global warming, which should be considered before funding the Rogun Dam project.
- In the face of escalating costs, questionable environmental impact, and advancements in renewable energy, the feasibility of Tajikistan's Rogun Dam project is challenged, and the need for financing options that support environmental-science-driven, climate-change-mitigating, and energy-efficient solutions is emphasized.
