Soybeans rebound to conclude their trade mixed on Thursday
In the ever-evolving world of international soybean trade, the 2025/26 season is marked by record global production, shifting major buyers, and evolving export patterns influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.
Global Production & Supply
Soybean global production for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase by about 1.3%, reaching approximately 427.7 million tonnes. Brazil leads the production growth with an expected 3.6% increase to 175 million tonnes, while the U.S. production is slightly down by 0.7% to 118 million tonnes. Argentina’s production is forecast to drop by 2.8% to 48.5 million tonnes. Ukraine’s soybean production surged to a record 7.6 million tonnes, a 15% increase from the previous forecast.
Exports
Brazil remains the world's largest soybean exporter, expected to ship about 112 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 9.2% from last season. The U.S. export outlook is subdued, forecasted to decline by 6.4% to 47.5 million tonnes. Argentina also faces a notable decrease in exports by 18% to 5 million tonnes.
Major Buyers
China continues to be the largest importer of soybeans, with imports projected to rise 5.2% year-over-year to 112 million tonnes in 2025/26. However, the U.S.-China trade dispute persists, with China maintaining a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans, redirecting much of its import demand to Brazil. As a result, Brazil supplies around 86% of China's soybean imports.
Weekly Export Sales Reports
While specific weekly export sales numbers were not detailed in the search results, USDA reports indicate adjustments in export volumes. The USDA’s weekly export sales reports typically reflect these dynamics, showing variable weekly shipments particularly influenced by weather conditions and policy changes.
Stocks and Demand
Global ending stocks are expected to rise slightly by 0.8% to 126.1 million tonnes, supported mainly by increases in stocks in Brazil and Argentina. This implies overall supply remains ample despite export variances.
Current Market Dynamics
The soybean market is currently volatile due to the intersection of weather impacts, policy shifts (especially the U.S.-China trade dispute), and record crops. Brazil's dominance in export markets, particularly to China, is pronounced. The U.S. market faces pressure due to tariffs and competition but maintains a stable presence worldwide. Ukraine’s increased production adds a new dynamic to global supply.
Recent Trading
At Thursday's close, soybeans saw mixed trade with August contracts down 1 1/2 cents and other contracts fractionally to 2 cents higher. The cmdtyView national average new crop Cash Bean price was up 1 1/4 cents at $9.73 1/4. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.24 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents. Soymeal futures are back down $1.00 to $2.50/ton.
It's important to note that all information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more detailed information, please view the website's Disclosure Policy. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.
Finance-related operations within the soybean market are shaped by several factors, such as trade policies, geopolitical events, and market dynamics. For instance, the record global soybean production for the 2025/26 season is expected to result in a slight rise in global ending stocks by 0.8%, totaling approximately 126.1 million tonnes. This development could potentially impact soybean market prices and trading activities.
