Soybean prices decrease as traders seek alternative trade agreements
In the current market landscape of mid-2025, soybean prices are displaying a mix of upward and downward trends, with a potential for moderate recovery by fall. This fluctuation is influenced by a variety of factors, including trade dynamics, weather conditions, acreage changes, and biofuel demand.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 to be $10.10 per bushel, a slight decrease from previous estimates. This forecast comes amid a higher global soybean supply, led by record harvests in Brazil and Ukraine, and increased global crush (processing demand). Despite this, U.S. exports are expected to decline somewhat [3].
On the other hand, Terrain Ag anticipates the 2025/26 season-average price to be around $10.50 per bushel, slightly above USDA’s forecast. This optimistic outlook is supported by lower U.S. planted acreage (83.38 million acres versus 87.1 million acres last year) and proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which are expected to boost domestic soybean demand for biofuels [1].
Market models reflect near-term softness, predicting soybean prices to trend lower through mid-August, with a base forecast near $9.59/bu and a potential modest recovery into fall toward the $9.86-$10.65 range. The market has become more cautious, with only about a 52% chance of higher prices by late September, down from stronger bullish expectations earlier in the summer [2].
Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continue to influence soybean price premiums and market sentiment, though China has been actively purchasing U.S. soybeans through July. The large South American crops and exports—particularly Brazil and Argentina—add supply-side pressure on prices globally [4].
Weather remains a key uncertainty. While U.S. conditions so far have been generally favourable, any adverse developments could affect yields and the price outlook. Similarly, weather and acreage adjustments in Brazil will be critical for the global balance [1][4].
In summary, soybean prices are currently under moderate pressure due to abundant global supply and favourable weather conditions, with both the USDA and analysts forecasting prices near $10/bu for 2025/26. However, domestic biofuel demand supported by RVOs and trade activity with China provide important demand pillars, leaving room for a modest price recovery in the fall if supply conditions tighten or weather worsens. The outlook is uncertain and highly dependent on evolving trade deals, weather, and policy announcements [1][2][3][4].
Current soybean prices are as follows: - Nearby Cash soybeans are currently at $9.69 1/4. - Nov 25 soybeans are at $10.22 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents. - Sep 25 soybeans are at $10.05, down 3 cents. - New Crop Cash soybeans are at $9.72 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents. - Aug 25 Soybeans are at $10.05 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
In other news, the US and Indonesia have agreed to a deal, with US tariffs on Indonesian goods set at 19% on most goods, and Indonesia eliminating most tariffs on US goods. Japan has also agreed to purchase $8 billion of US goods, including soybeans, and tariffs between the US and Japan are set at 15% starting August 1 [5].
The USDA's weekly Export Sales data is expected to show between 100,000 and 350,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the week ending on 7/17, with 250,000 to 500,000 MT seen for new crop. Soybean futures decreased by 2 to 4 1/2 cents, closing at $9.72 1/4 [6].
Soy Oil gained 29 to 51 points, while soymeal futures dropped by 40 cents to $1.80/ton. Soybean meal is expected to see between 250,000 and 550,000 MT, with 0 to 20,000 MT seen for bean oil [6].
References: [1] https://www.terrainag.com/ [2] https://www.agrimetrics.com/ [3] https://www.usda.gov/ [4] https://www.usda.gov/oce/international-trade/market-analysis/soybeans [5] https://ustr.gov/ [6] https://www.cmegroup.com/
Investors exploring the prospects of the 2025/26 soybean market may find opportunities for finances considering the forecasted season-average price by Terrain Ag, which is expected to be around $10.50 per bushel, slightly above the USDA's forecast. This optimism stems from lower U.S. planted acreage and proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs), which are anticipated to boost domestic demand for soybeans in biofuels.
