Shift in Western Air Pollution by China: Explanation Disclosed

Shift in Western Air Pollution by China: Explanation Disclosed

In 2025, China continues to grapple with the challenge of improving air quality, particularly in its western and southern regions. While eastern China has shown significant improvements, the western and southern provinces have experienced a rise in air pollution, primarily due to the growth of energy-intensive industries.

According to recent reports, the expansion of heavy industry output, particularly in crude steel, pig iron, and non-ferrous metal production, has been substantial in western China. This growth has been accompanied by an increase in pollution levels, as these industries are known for their high emissions.

Seasonal factors also contribute to the pollution spikes in western China. For instance, firework displays during national festivals and the burning of crop stubble in springtime have been identified as significant contributors to the rise in pollution levels.

Moreover, the energy mix in western China poses challenges. Although there has been a decline in the share of coal and thermal power in the electricity mix, in some provinces rich in renewables, coal power is expanding faster than clean energy, partially offsetting the gains. This insufficient energy transition has been a key factor in the rising air pollution levels in the region.

In contrast, eastern China has seen improvements in air quality. This has been largely due to the contraction of many heavily polluting industries, although some coal-to-chemical sectors have expanded, posing continued pollution risks.

This regional divergence in air quality trends is a reflection of economic and industrial shifts. While there is growth of polluting heavy industries in western China, there is industrial decline in the east.

China's efforts at managing air pollution have primarily focused on the eastern parts of the country. However, the National Energy Administration has presented a new formulation, "power from the west of the country, utilised in the west of the country", aiming to address this imbalance.

In 2024, the State Council announced an employment-first strategy, aiming to steer capital-, technology- and labour-intensive industries into China's central and western regions. This strategy, along with China's ongoing efforts to develop western regions, which began in 2020, offers hope for improved air quality in these regions in the future.

However, in 2025, provinces such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang saw their PM2.5 levels rise substantially compared to the previous year. Xinjiang even took over from Henan as the province with the worst airborne particulates problem in 2025.

In conclusion, the key drivers of worsening air pollution in western China are rapid industrial growth in iron, steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal-chemical sectors, seasonal agricultural burning and cultural fireworks, coal power expansion outpacing renewables in certain western provinces, and insufficient offset from energy transition efforts at the regional level.

Meanwhile, eastern China’s air quality gains have come chiefly from industrial contraction and pollution control policies. As China continues to navigate its economic development and environmental challenges, striking a balance between industrial growth and air quality improvement will remain a key priority.

References:

[1] Xiao, Y., et al. (2022). Spatial and temporal patterns of PM2.5 and their correlations with industrial emissions in China. Environmental Pollution, 281, 117149.

[2] State of China's Environment Report 2025 (SOE Report 2025). (2025). China Environment Press.

1. The expansion of energy-intensive industries, particularly in crude steel, pig iron, and non-ferrous metal production, has contributed significantly to the rise in carbon emissions in western China, causing a rise in air pollution.
2. Science shows that seasonal factors, such as firework displays during national festivals and the burning of crop stubble, add to the spikes in pollution levels in western China.
3. In contrast to western China, the share of coal and thermal power in the electricity mix has declined in some provinces rich in renewable energy in eastern China, although coal-to-chemical sectors have expanded, posing continued pollution risks.
4. The carbon markets could play a crucial role in accelerating the energy transition, as the insufficient transition of energy in western China from coal to renewable energy has been a key factor in the rise of air pollution levels.
5. Finance and investment can support the development of clean energy technologies and help create jobs in environmental-science sectors, steering capital-, technology- and labour-intensive industries into China's central and western regions, as presented by the State Council's employment-first strategy in 2024.
6. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize the importance of mitigating climate-change impacts through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and clean technology innovation, particularly in the manufacturing and industry sectors that are substantial contributors to air pollution.

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