Secret Stock Manipulator Returns, Causing Volatility in Markets
Rewritten Article:
In the current market scene, the JSE top 40 index has seen a 9% boost YTD, while a local S&P 500 tracker ETF has taken a hit, falling 6.6%. At first glance, you might think the US market has taken a toll, and South Africa's market is on a roll, right? But before you jump to conclusions, remember this: short-term shifts shouldn't be extrapolated.
Take a step back and analyze over a five-year period—using the start of COVID as our base—and you'll see that the S&P 500 ETF would've risen by an impressive 132%, while the JSE top 40 would've grown by 100%. Despite the gap narrowing lately, it's still quite significant.
But then again, South Africa's market nuances don't reflect the everyday lives of citizens—not entirely. The local companies directly impacted by our economy have far from matched the imagery of stock market glory. Gold miners, blooming, or Naspers/Prosus with a keen eye on China, have outshone the crowd. The stellar 2025 performance on the JSE primarily comes from a select few sectors, notably telecoms. They've proven to be impressive in terms of regional consumer exposure.
On the topic of consumers, they've been under the pump in both the US and our own backyard in 2025. South African retailers have seen a downturn after a promising 2024, fuelled by excitement about the GNU. Meanwhile, the US market, fueled by years of easy money policy and excessive optimism, saw a correction—unexpectedly in the form of a MAGA rally.
Insights:While specific five-year performance metrics (2021–2025) for the JSE Top 40 and S&P 500 feeder ETFs aren't explicitly mentioned, available 2025 data and historical context reveal trends:
- JSE Top 40 Index:
- 2025 Impact: A 9% single-day plunge in April 2025.
- Post-COVID Context: Dominated by value stocks, like MTN and Vodacom. These tend to recover slower post-crisis compared to growth sectors.
- Five-Year Trend: Likely moderate growth (2022-2024) compensated by 2025’s correction.
- S&P 500 Feeder ETF:
- 2025 Impact: A 10% loss in two days in April 2025.
- Post-COVID Trajectory: A sell-off in 2020, followed by a recovery and strong bull market (2021-2024). Volatility returned in 2025.
- Five-Year Trend: Notable cumulative returns (2020–2024), dampened by 2025’s correction. The five-year CAGR averaged 9–12%, but could be closer to 6–8%, reduced by 2025’s losses (hypothetical estimate).
Comparatively, the S&P 500 ETF likely posted stronger performances over five years, owing to its exposure to robust growth sectors, albeit with higher short-term risks. Precise, numerical trends call for additional historical data.
- The JSE top 40 index's single-day plunge of 9% in April 2025 was a notable trend within its five-year performance, which was primarily dominated by value stocks like MTN and Vodacom.
- The S&P 500 ETF, on the other hand, experienced a 10% loss in two days in the same month, though it had previously posted impressive growth owing to its exposure to robust sectors, albeit with higher short-term risks.
- Despite the JSE top 40's moderate growth from 2022 to 2024, compensated by a correction in 2025, the S&P 500 ETF's cumulative returns from 2020 to 2024 were substantial, averaging 9–12%, although these were dampened by the correction in 2025.
- In contrast to the JSE's primary growth coming from sectors like telecoms, the US market, fueled by years of easy money policy and excessive optimism, saw a correction unexpectedly in the form of a MAGA rally in 2025.
- The corporate landscape in South Africa, while showing impressive growth in sectors like telecoms, has not entirely reflected the everyday lives of its citizens, with local companies directly impacted by the economy faring poorly.
6.South African retailers experienced a downturn in 2025, a reversal from the promising performance in 2024, while the US market had seen a correction fueled by years of easy money policy and excessive optimism.
- Looking forward to 2025, the finance and investing worlds will closely monitor both the JSE and the US stock-market trends, particularly in the retail and regional consumer exposure sectors, to better understand the macroeconomic dynamics in these markets.
