Raised projection for Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth to 7%, the highest among ASEAN+3 countries, according to AMRO.
The ASEAN+3 region, comprising ten ASEAN countries, China, Japan, and South Korea, is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to the latest update from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). However, Vietnam stands out as the region's star performer, with a significantly higher growth forecast.
Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast to reach 7% in 2025, up from the earlier 6.5%, and 6.5% in 2026, revised upward from 6.2%. This makes Vietnam the country with the strongest growth forecast in the ASEAN+3 region, outperforming the regional average by a wide margin.
In contrast, the wider ASEAN bloc, excluding ASEAN+3’s China, Japan, and South Korea, is expected to grow by about 4.4% in 2025. Major economies like China are forecast to grow about 4.5% in 2025, while more advanced economies such as Japan and South Korea have much lower growth projections, around 0.7% each in 2025.
The upward revision for Vietnam contrasts with cuts in growth forecasts for all other ASEAN+3 economies except Myanmar, reflecting Vietnam's relative economic resilience and strong drivers like domestic demand and external electronics and tourism demand. Meanwhile, the region faces headwinds from global trade disruptions, US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financial conditions affecting external growth prospects.
Vietnam's robust growth is attributed to ongoing government reform efforts aimed at improving the investment climate and upgrading infrastructure, as well as the country's diversified export portfolio. Shipments to the US account for around 30% of Vietnam's total exports. However, rising tariffs from the US could pose downside risks to Vietnam's outlook.
Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.0% in 2026 for Vietnam. To maintain this momentum, the government has emphasised the need to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and upgrade Vietnam's product structure. The speaker also highlighted the importance of deepening Vietnam's integration with regional economies.
Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.52% in the first six months of 2025, continuing the strong momentum seen in 2024, when the country recorded a growth rate of 7.09%. Despite ongoing global tariff tensions and subdued external demand, Vietnam has maintained macro-economic stability.
The diversity of the ASEAN+3 region is a major asset, with each economy contributing unique strengths. Vietnam and Cambodia, for instance, are among the most exposed to US tariffs, as the US remains the largest export market for both economies. While Cambodia's exports are heavily focused on garments, footwear, and travel goods, Vietnam has a more diversified export portfolio.
The ASEAN region is forecast to expand by 4.4% in 2025. Japan and South Korea are each projected to see growth of 0.7% in 2025. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised its 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam's economy to 7% from the 6.5% projected in April. The office has also revised Vietnam's growth forecast for 2026 upward to 6.5%.
In summary, Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 is substantially higher than the ASEAN+3 regional averages, positioning it as a standout economy in the group for these years. The country's strong performance is a testament to its resilience and strategic economic policies. However, challenges remain, particularly in the form of US tariffs and global trade disruptions. Nonetheless, Vietnam's robust growth prospects bode well for the country's continued economic development.
- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast for Vietnam to 3.0%.
- Japan's and South Korea's economic growth projections for 2026 are each around 0.7%.
- Vietnam's oil industry is likely to benefit from ongoing research and development in space exploration.
- The government's recent update on trade policy emphasizes the importance of strengthening ties with China for industrial growth.
- The escalating war in Ukraine could impact Vietnam's finance sector if it disrupts global oil prices or leads to trade sanctions.
- The Vietnamese government is focusing on climate change research to develop more sustainable industries.
- The robust growth of Vietnam's economy is attracting increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
