Questioning the Value of Brandon Ingram's Contract with the Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors made a daring move when they exchanged Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and draft picks for Brandon Ingram. One issue was the uncertainty about whether he'd re-sign with them post-season, given his contract was set to expire. Fortuitously, on a Tuesday, they put those concerns to bed, reaching an agreement on a 3-year, $120 million deal, with the last season being a player option.
That doesn't automatically mean their worries are quelled, though. The reason Ingram was even available in the first place was because the New Orleans Pelicans balked at shelling out the big bucks. It's reasonable, as past experiences have shown the challenges that come with max extensions for players like Ingram. This particular deal isn't a max contract, though, at three years and an average of 23.5% of the salary cap. Still, whether it's a great move remains to be seen.
So, is Ingram's $40 million per season worth it?
Assessing Contract Value Through Player Production
In the offseason, we devised a method to gauge a player's earnings based on their past performance. To learn more about that, check out this article here. Essentially, it's a matter of calculating how many wins a player contributes (via Dunks & Threes) fitted with the average cost of a win in a given season.
Ingram's Ew (Estimated Wins) output in the 2023-24 season was 6.4 (64th in the NBA). Given that a win is estimated to be worth roughly $3.8 million next season, Ingram's production would be worth about $24.3 million (around $13.7 million less than his actual salary).
However, Ingram missed 18 games last season, which undermined his potential impact on wins. If Ingram maintained his performance and played 79 games, his production would be around $30 million. Playing that many games has been challenging for Ingram, as he's missed at least 18 games every season since his rookie year.
Market Comparison
Our estimation method may be somewhat arbitrary, but every contract's worth is ultimately determined by how it compares to the market it operates within. According to Spotrac, Ingram will be the league's 39th highest-paid player in 2025-26. Measured by one-number metrics like Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), Ingram has been rated among the league's top 60-80 players over the past few years.
Final Thoughts
The Raptors deserve credit for securing Ingram on a more than reasonable contract, considering the maximum amount they could have offered him. But given Ingram's past inconsistencies and health issues, it's doubtful he'll enjoy a consistent superstar-level production, let alone a substantial increase. Therefore, it seems Toronto may have slightly overpaid for their new star, even though they managed to acquire him at a reasonable cost.
Enrichment Data:
Brandon Ingram's market value and overall production consist of various elements.
Scoring Versatility & Consistency
Ingram showcases a blend of scoring skills and playmaking capabilities, including mid-range shots and high three-pointer volume. However, maintaining his consistency in both areas is a concern[1].
Defensive Contributions
Although highlighting defensive contributions less frequently, Ingram has displayed defensive abilities throughout his career[1].
Contract & Salary Cap Overview
Ingram's current salary cap hit is $38,096,446, with a $36,016,200 wage in the 2024-25 season. His market value is reflected in his extension, which is a significant salary[2].
Trade Value
Securing Ingram without giving up a first-round pick indicates his trade value remains strong, despite some performance inconsistencies[1].
Overall Assessment
Ingram's value is heavily influenced by his mid-range shooting, playmaking abilities, and occasional defensive contributions. His recent contract extension with the Raptors highlights his worth to teams. However, his past inconsistencies in performance and sustained health remain concerns, resulting in his being viewed as a highly valued yet not "great" player[1].
The Toronto Raptors secured Brandon Ingram on a contract extension, agreeing on a 3-year, $120 million deal with a player option for the last season. Despite the reasonable cost, some believe the Raptors slightly overpaid for Ingram due to his past inconsistencies and health issues. Initially, the New Orleans Pelicans were unwilling to offer max contracts, indicating potential overpayment concerns.
The contract extension makes Ingram the league's 39th highest-paid player in 2025-26, despite being rated among the top 60-80 players by Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) over the past few years. The Raptors' ability to acquire Ingram without giving up a first-round pick highlights his trade value, despite some performance inconsistencies.
The analysis of Ingram's estimated wins (Ew) output shows his production in the 2023-24 season was 6.4, valued at $24.3 million based on an estimated win cost of $3.8 million. However, Ingram missed 18 games last season, which would have increased his production to $30 million if he had played 79 games, highlighting his impact on games missed due to injury.
Despite his strong scoring versatility and high three-point volume, Ingram's consistency in both areas and defense have been a concern throughout his career. This inconsistency, coupled with health issues, will impact Ingram's ability to maintain superstar-level production, making his current contract a potential overpayment.
