Projected electricity consumption in Germany by 2045 surpasses 880 terawatt hours, according to research findings
In a recent development, the consulting firm "Path to Zero" has predicted a significant increase in Germany's electricity demand, with projections suggesting it could reach 881.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year by 2045. This increase is largely driven by the electrification of heating, transport, and industry.
The Federal Minister of Economics, Katharina Reiche (CDU), has commissioned an "energy transition monitoring" to be completed by August 31, in response to lower growth projections. This monitoring will assess the progress of the energy transition in Germany.
The current electricity demand in Germany stands at around 500 TWh per year. The analysis, which included the new "Path to Zero" study, as well as publications from Agora Energiewende, McKinsey, EnBW, and Epico, all point towards an increase in electricity demand.
The Path to Zero scenario indicates that electrification will raise the share of electricity in final energy consumption from 17% (2023) to between 47% and 59% by 2045. This reflects a roughly 2.5 to 3.5 times increase in electricity demand relative to today.
Agora Energiewende and Fraunhofer ISE estimate electricity demand rising above 1,200 TWh by 2045, driven by heat pumps, electric vehicles, and industrial electrification. This implies a roughly double to triple increase compared to current levels.
However, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, relying on a forecast by the University of Cologne's EWI, estimates significantly lower demand growth by considering only current consumption and excluding future increases from heat pumps, electric mobility, and data centers. Critics argue this underestimates demand by up to 45% and risks inadequate renewable expansion.
The think tank Epico concurs that despite scenarios showing somewhat lower growth in demand, substantial expansion of renewable generation capacity remains essential to meet increased electricity requirements.
Investments to support this demand growth include major grid expansion, deployment of energy storage systems, and integration of hydrogen demand. The study by energy company EnBW projects photovoltaic capacity to reach 254 gigawatts by 2045.
The increase in electricity demand is expected even in a scenario with a slowed transition to electric mobility and heat pumps. The expansion of renewable energies is a topic of political debate in Germany.
High hydrogen imports instead of domestic, energy-intensive hydrogen production is also a factor in the projected increase in electricity demand. The commissioning of the "energy transition monitoring" is due to recent lower growth projections. The pace of renewable energy expansion in Germany is currently under consideration.
This news was reported by the "Handelsblatt" in its Thursday edition. The projected increase in electricity demand aligns with a broad consensus among various energy transition studies. The "energy transition monitoring" is expected to provide valuable insights into the progress and challenges of Germany's energy transition.
Read also:
- Construction and renovation projects in Cham county granted €24.8 million focus on energy efficiency
- Disruptions looming in global chocolate production as Turkey's hazelnut crops face winter perils
- Finance Management Organization (FMO) secures €130 million syndicated loan for QNB Leasing in Turkey
- Orbital satellites, previously purchased, for which Trump desires a destructive, fiery atmospheric descent
