Population in Ontario decreases amidst escalating out-migration, as high housing costs and unemployment surpassing 700,000 drive people away.
In an unexpected turn of events, Ontario has experienced a population decline for the second time on record in the first quarter of 2025. This trend, which was first observed in Q4 2020, marks a significant shift in the province's demographic landscape.
Statistics Canada, the country's national statistical agency, has been tracking Ontario's population since 1951. However, the specific region within Ontario that received the highest number of emigrants during this latest quarter remains undetermined.
The exodus from Ontario appears to be directed towards two main destinations: Alberta and British Columbia. In Q1 2025, half of those leaving Ontario moved to either of these provinces, with 31% heading to Alberta and 19% to British Columbia.
This trend is indicative of a broader shift, as Ontario is no longer a popular destination for interprovincial migration. Instead, more people are choosing to leave the province for other regions.
The reasons behind this movement are multifaceted. One contributing factor could be the surge in housing prices in the Greater Toronto Area. Between March 2020 and February 2022, the average benchmark house purchase price increased by a staggering 53%.
Another factor could be the employment market. In July 2020, Ontario's unemployment rate was a full point higher than the national rate, with 700,000 workers unemployed. The unemployment rate in Ontario pushed above the national average during this period.
Despite these significant changes, it seems that major Canadian news outlets have not reported extensively on these developments. CBC, CTV News, The Toronto Star, Global News, and the Toronto Sun did not cover Ontario's net negative interprovincial migration in their most recent reports on the Statistics Canada data.
This lack of reporting raises questions about the public's awareness of these demographic shifts and their potential implications for the province's future. As the situation unfolds, it will be interesting to see how Ontario responds and adapts to this unprecedented trend.
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