Over numerous generations, Russia served as Syria's principal weapons provider. However, this could potentially change.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, occurring in December 2024, brought a major shift after over half a century of brutal Assad family rule. This regime change may signal the end of the long-standing partnership between Syria and Russia, who served as the country's primary weapon supplier.
Although Syria's new authorities have not issued an immediate request for Russia to evacuate its bases, Russia has started to draw down its presence and withdrawn high-end weaponry and warships from its Tartus naval base, one of its only such facilities outside the former Soviet Union. This base's lease has been canceled, and the recent docking of Russian ships seems to indicate a complete evacuation may already be underway.
Turkey, the powerful neighboring country, is now well-positioned to influence Syria's fate, potentially ending Moscow's role as Syria's main weapons supplier forever. This shift could mark the end of an era stretching back nearly 70 years.
During this period, Syria received significant military aid from Russia, including around 5,000 tanks, 1,200 fighter jets, 70 ships, and large sums of munitions. In several wars against Israel, Syrian forces fought with Soviet-made MiGs and T-55/T-62 tanks, showcasing Moscow's vital role in Syrian defense.
Syria continued to rearm itself with Soviet technology throughout the 1970s and 1980s, acquiring T-62 tanks, MiG-23 Floggers, S-75 air defenses, and even MiG-25 Foxbats and T-72 tanks by the 1980s. Despite these purchases, Syria's forces never gained the upper hand in conflicts with Israel, underscoring the advantage of American-made weaponry.
Russia's aid to Syria peaked during the 1980s, with significant deliveries of advanced equipment, despite concerns from the Reagan administration due to Soviet military advisors and long-range S-200 missile sales. In 1989, a controversial incident involving the shooting of a Soviet Navy cruiser by Syrian helicopters hinted at potential tensions beneath the relationship's surface.
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a freeze on outstanding arms deals and a shift in Russia's relationship with Syria, now focused on supplying only defense weapons and requiring hard currency payments. Despite attempts at large-scale deals in the 1990s and 2000s—including a proposed sale of Su-27 and S-300 systems—Syria received limited equipment, primarily anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles.
When Syria descended into civil war following the Arab Spring in 2011, Russia stepped in to bolster the Assad regime's position, supplying them with T-90 tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, and various missile systems. However, Russian hardware failed to protect Syria from external threats, such as Israeli air campaigns targeting Iranian-backed elements in the country.
Russia's involvement in the Syrian Civil War concluded with the delivery of the controversial "Syrian" S-300 system, which ultimately remained under Russian control. In 2020, Russia allegedly delivered unmarked MiG-29 fighters to Libya through Syria.
At the end of 2024, with the collapse of the Syrian regime, Israel swiftly took advantage to conduct hundreds of airstrikes, destroying Syria's remaining military assets in just a few days. The destruction of the MiG-29 fleet, sunken missile boats, and key military installations marked an end to the age-old military relationship between Syria and Russia.
Russia's future as Syria's primary weapons supplier seems doubtful, and new leaders may look beyond Russia for military aid, potentially seeking alternatives with regional powers such as Turkey. With so many changes underway, it remains uncertain whether Moscow will maintain any significant influence in war-torn Syria.
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, the Syrian army, navy, and air force, all heavily reliant on Russian arms, faced an uncertain future. Russia began withdrawing its troops and high-end weaponry from its Tartus naval base, potentially signaling an end to its role as Syria's main weapons supplier. Furthermore, with Turkey positioned to influence Syria's post-regime future, the Syrian military might seek alternative sources for military aid, potentially reducing Russia's influence in the region.
