OPEC+ facing additional oil output escalation in September
As September approaches, the global oil market is gearing up for a significant shift. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) are planning to approve a production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. This decision follows a 548,000 bpd increase in August and continues the group's plan to fully unwind the 2.2 million bpd production cuts they had implemented in 2023.
The phased return includes top producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. The UAE, in particular, is expected to contribute an additional 300,000 bpd due to a quota adjustment. This will mark the return of 2.17 million bpd to the market from the eight OPEC+ members.
This significant supply boost aims to normalize production capacity and meet strong global demand. However, despite these increases, analysts believe the oil market remains relatively tight. Global Supply: The cumulative increase from March to September 2025 will add approximately 1.67 million bpd to total OPEC+ output, reaching around 33.2 million bpd, equivalent to almost 2.5% of global demand.
Despite increasing production, oil prices have remained relatively stable so far. Brent crude is currently around $69.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is near $67.83. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices near $59 per barrel for Q4 2025, factoring in potential supply shortfalls from Russia and strong demand from China and resilient global growth. However, there are concerns about a possible oil surplus and price pressure in Q4 2025 if demand weakens and inventories rise.
The oil market faces a balancing act. While increasing supply supports market share recovery by OPEC+, there are downside risks including a possible US recession and anticipated lifting of pandemic-related production cuts totaling 1.65 million bpd, which could dampen demand and weigh on prices.
In summary, the expected 550,000 bpd production increase in September will finalize OPEC+'s return of earlier cuts, significantly boosting global oil supply. This should help meet robust demand but raises concerns about potential oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices towards the end of 2025. As always, the market will need to carefully navigate these dynamics to ensure a stable and balanced oil supply in the coming months.
The expected production increase of 550,000 barrels per day by OPEC+ in September will trigger a substantial supply boost in the energy industry, aimed at meeting the robust demand in the global market. This increase, coupled with the additional 300,000 bpd from the UAE, will furthur strengthen the oil-and-gas business by adding over 1.67 million bpd to total OPEC+ output by September 2025. However, analysts predict a tight oil market during this period, with concerns about possible oil surpluses and downward pressure on prices, particularly in Q4 2025.
