NFL games' pricing on certain occasions is lower on Kalshi compared to DraftKings, as stated by Bear Cave.
In an analysis published by The Bear Cave newsletter, editor and founder Edwin Dorsey compared the NFL pricing of prediction market platform Kalshi with its sportsbook rival, DraftKings. The report, published 10 days after a sell-side analyst report, indicates that Kalshi is improving its NFL pricing to better compete with DraftKings.
The issue with parlays on prediction markets like Kalshi is that they require the counterparty to put up large amounts of capital for relatively small payouts. For instance, for the Kansas City Chiefs versus New York Giants, Kalshi offered $170 for a $50 bet on the underdog Giants, while DraftKings offered $157.50.
Dorsey, who is not a short seller and doesn't take positions in the stocks mentioned in his newsletter, bought "yes" contracts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Kalshi and placed a $50 moneyline bet on Tampa Bay on DraftKings. The Bucs won, and Dorsey collected $115 from Kalshi and $107 from DraftKings.
The report did not mention any specific examples of Kalshi offering better pricing on favourite NFL teams, beyond the anecdotal basis mentioned earlier. Similarly, it did not mention any specific examples of DraftKings offering superior pricing relative to Kalshi, beyond the sell-side analyst report mentioned earlier.
The Bear Cave reviewed prices for all upcoming Sunday NFL games and found that in many cases, Kalshi offered better odds than DraftKings. In 14 Sunday, September 21 NFL games, Kalshi has a pricing advantage in eight games compared to six for DraftKings.
However, the report also mentions that Kalshi has come under fire for allowing "whales" and professional investors to trade on the platform for free while charging fees to smaller-stakes clients. There is speculation that Kalshi's market-making unit may be trading against retail customers, potentially making it harder for those market participants to win.
The article focuses on the prediction markets behemoth Kalshi and its NFL pricing. The report did not feature overtly negative commentary on DraftKings, acknowledging that DraftKings remains a credible competitor in the sports betting market. The analysis was based on the odds DraftKings was offering in New York City, which is the largest sports betting market in the US.
On September 18, 2025, Todd Shriber posted an article about the gaming business and mergers and acquisitions. The report didn't mention any overtly negative commentary on DraftKings' NFL pricing in the first week of the 2025 NFL campaign. The Bear Cave's research provides insights into the competitive landscape of the sports betting market, as Kalshi strives to improve its pricing to better compete with DraftKings.
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