Next Release of Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2025 is set to be released on Thursday, September 11, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time[1][2][3][5]. This report, which offers a comprehensive overview of inflation rates, has become one of the stars of the economic calendar, as markets eagerly await its impact on borrowing costs and the risk of a potential recession.
The CPI report, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a variety of goods and services. It is particularly significant as it provides insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation target, which is based on data contained in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE).
The Fed's long-term 2% target for inflation is closely tied to the PCE, while the CPI serves as a more relatable measure to what consumers experience in their daily lives. The main inflation gauge is the headline number, while Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices.
Data for the CPI report is collected from approximately 50,000 landlords or tenants, and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments across 75 urban areas throughout the country. Prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected monthly, offering a timely snapshot of inflation trends.
As the Fed embarks on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations, the upcoming CPI report is under intense scrutiny. The odds of a September rate cut by the Fed, according to CME FedWatch, currently stand at 87% following the July jobs report.
However, RBC BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding has noted that the risks for the next CPI report sit to the high side. If the consensus number for the next CPI report is confirmed, it may add to calls that the Fed has room to cut rates.
Yet, the central bank remains reluctant to reduce the federal funds rate due to the implementation of price-raising tariffs and a resilient labor market. The current federal funds rate range is 4.25% to 4.5%. The FOMC was quick to cut rates in late 2024 but kept the federal funds rate unchanged for a fifth straight time when it met in July.
Easing too soon could cause inflation to resurface, forcing the Fed to pivot back to rate hikes. Consensus estimates for the next CPI report show a 0.3% gain in core prices over the month of July, taking the annual rate to 3.0%. If these estimates hold true, it could provide some relief to the Fed's monetary policy decision-making.
The next CPI report is scheduled to be released ahead of the market open on Tuesday, August 12. As markets anxiously await the report, the potential impact on the economy and the Fed's future monetary policy decisions will be closely watched.
[1]: Source 1 [2]: Source 2 [3]: Source 3 [4]: Source 4 [5]: Source 5
Investors keenly observe the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as it may influence the Fed's decision on interest rates due to its impact on borrowing costs and the possibility of a potential recession. Market expectations suggest that there is a high consensus for a 0.3% increase in core prices in the next CPI report, which may offer temporary relief to the ongoing conversation about the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
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