Monitoring fuel prices is a part of government oversight
With the escalation of conflict in the Middle East looming over global markets, minister Leitão Amaro addressed gathered press after the Council of Ministers, stating that no discussions regarding oil and fuel price increases had transpired. He clarified that the fallout from this conflict would rear its head further down the line, impacting fuel prices for customers even more.
BOiling things down, the international oil market is projected to see an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, with an additional 1.1 mb/d in 2026, mainly due to non-OPEC+ countries [2]. This trend, supposed to modulate price spikes amidst geopolitical tension, might provide a cushion against sudden price hikes, if all goes well.
Turning the spotlight onto Portugal, it's clear that the nation's oil and gas supply comes predominantly from Atlantic regions including the North and South Atlantic and North Africa, ironed out under long-term contracts [1]. That geographical diversification and the stability of contracts contribute to easing potential supply disruptions caused by regional conflicts, such as the one brewing in the Middle East.
In 2023, Portugal imported 10.8 million tonnes of crude oil, with the lion's share coming from Brazil (43%), Algeria (15%), and Nigeria (13%) [5]. These supply sources are stationed away from the most volatile geopolitical hotspots, further insulating Portugal from immediate supply concerns. The presence of refining capacity at the Sines refinery (226 kb/d) adds an extra layer of resilience to the supply chain, helping the country handle localized fluctuation in the market.
On the government front, they remain watchful and on standby to intervene if geopolitical tensions spun out of control, causing significant price increases [1]. They're keeping a hefty eye on things to make sure consumers don't end up getting burned.
In light of the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and potential impacts on global oil markets, Portugal, with its diverse oil supply from the Atlantic regions and long-term contracts, seems relatively insulated. However, the Portuguese government remains vigilant, monitoring finance and energy sectors, ready to intervene if sudden price increases arise due to the conflicts, ensuring consumer protection in the country's finance and energy industry.
