"Izvestia": Minek deems a dollar at less than 75 rubles as undesirable
The Ministry of Economic Development (MinEc) of Russia has recently revised its forecast for the average annual USD exchange rate in 2025. According to the latest announcement, MinEc predicts the exchange rate to be 94.3 rubles per dollar, which is lower than the rates predicted by analysts for 2026 and 2027.
In July, analysts participating in the Central Bank's survey had predicted a stronger ruble over the next three years. For 2026, economists expect a USD rate of 97.5 rubles, while for 2027, the rate is predicted to be 101.5 rubles.
MinEc's revised forecast for 2025 is also higher than the official USD exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia for August 7, 2025, which stands at 80.1914 rubles. However, it is important to note that MinEc's forecast for 2025 was not explicitly provided in the search results for comparison.
MinEc's forecast suggests a strengthening of the ruble compared to the rates predicted by analysts for 2026 and 2027. The impact of the exchange rate on economic indicators and the country's technological equipment remains significant, as MinEc believes.
Regarding the impact of ruble volatility, MinEc states that it has a lesser impact on the development of digital platforms, attracting foreign students, and increasing housing affordability. However, a source in government agencies told "Izvestia" that MinEc may develop measures to minimize risks at a later date.
The Ministry has defined a middle risk range for the USD exchange rate as below 85 rubles and above 100 rubles. For 2025, analysts expect a USD rate of 87.3 rubles, compared to 91.5 rubles predicted in May 2025. MinEc's revised forecast for 2025 is within this middle risk range defined by MinEc.
Analyst forecasts for 2026-2027 vary, with Wallet Investor forecasting steady USD strengthening, Coin Index predicting a potentially volatile trend, and Long Forecast indicating moderate USD strength. The exact forecasts for 2025 from these analysts were not found in the search results for comparison.
Here is a summary of the forecasts for EUR/USD rates from different analysts:
| Year | Wallet Investor (EUR/USD) | Coin Index (EUR/USD) | Long Forecast (EUR/USD) | |-------|----------------------------|------------------------------|-----------------------------| | 2025 (MinEc forecast) | Not provided | Not provided | Not provided | | 2026 | Start 1.1620 / End 1.1570 | Start 1.3300 / End 1.4801* | Start 1.3400 / End 1.2850 | | 2027 | Start 1.1520 / End 1.1480 | Start 1.4747 / End 1.4308 | Start 1.2830 / End 1.3100 |
*Note: Coin Index 2026 end forecast at 1.4801 is unusually high (implying EUR strengthening), which conflicts with the description of a steep decline, and may require verification.
In conclusion, MinEc's revised forecast for the average annual USD exchange rate in 2025 predicts a stronger ruble compared to analysts' predictions for 2026 and 2027. The exact forecast for 2025 is not available for comparison, and MinEc may develop measures to minimize risks at a later date.
The Ministry of Economic Development's revised forecast for the average annual USD exchange rate in 2025 indicates a shift in the expected strength of the Russian ruble compared to the predictions within the finance industry for the subsequent years 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, the revised forecast falls within the middle risk range defined by the Ministry. Thus, this revision could potentially impact the forecasted business growth in Russia for the next few years.
