International Seaport Hubs Evidence Resurgence
The third quarter of 2025 is shaping up to be a period of significant variation in global container port throughput, with different regions and key ports experiencing unique trends and challenges.
North America: Record Volumes and Congestion
U.S. West Coast ports, such as Los Angeles and Long Beach, have seen record or near-record container volumes in the first half of 2025. This surge was largely driven by shippers rushing to beat new tariffs effective in Q3 2025. For instance, the Port of Los Angeles handled 892,340 TEUs in June 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, with first-half volumes exceeding 4.96 million TEUs. Similarly, Long Beach had over 4.75 million TEUs handled in H1 2025, a 10.6% increase.
However, this surge has caused significant congestion and supply chain strain, especially with inland facility bottlenecks and pressures on drayage markets. This congestion is likely to continue or intensify, necessitating technological measures like dock scheduling software and yard management systems to improve throughput efficiency.
Northwest Europe: Declines and Operational Challenges
Ports in Northwest Europe, such as Antwerp-Bruges, have faced declines in throughput due to persistent congestion and logistical issues. Terminal congestion, caused by irregular containership arrivals, container alliance reshuffling, and rerouting to avoid the Red Sea, has impacted throughput. Dwell times have risen from an average of 5 to 7–8 days, stressing personnel and equipment, further worsened by union actions. These logistical challenges mean throughput growth in Q3 2025 is constrained.
Global Fleet and Supply Factors: Capacity Outpaces Demand
Container vessel fleet capacity is expected to increase by around 6% in 2025. This fleet growth outpaces demand, which is forecast to be flat or slightly declining (around 0–3%) due to weakening US and global trade demand and tariff impacts. As a result, an expectation of falling freight rates and rising idle capacity in Q3 2025 and beyond is likely.
Trade Volume Insights: Front-Loading and Geopolitical Uncertainties
The surge in volumes in North American ports stems mainly from tariff-driven front-loading, which will likely ease after Q3. Meanwhile, intra-Asia regional trade and some macroeconomic improvements may support moderate volume rebounds in Asia, but geopolitical uncertainties, notably the Red Sea situation and US-China trade tensions, continue to weigh heavily on global volumes and port throughput.
Summary
The third quarter of 2025 will see high throughput volume and congestion at major U.S. ports, especially on the West Coast, due to tariff deadlines triggering import surges. Northwest European ports face throughput declines and operational challenges from persistent congestion and logistical issues, limiting growth. Global container throughput growth is flat or slightly negative overall, pressured by tariff effects and softening demand. Fleet capacity increases outpace demand growth, likely causing declining freight rates and operational adjustments in the container shipping sector. Technological and operational responses, such as dock scheduling and integrated inland drayage services, are essential to manage throughput and congestion challenges during this period.
- The container shipping industry, specifically in North America, is experiencing significant growth in container volumes due to tariff-driven front-loading at U.S. West Coast ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach, which might result in increased finance requirements to manage the surge.
- In contrast, global trade faces challenges in regions such as Northwest Europe, where ports like Antwerp-Bruges are experiencing declines and operational difficulties due to congestion and logistical issues, potentially impacting the finances of these ports and the broader transportation sector.
