International Monetary Fund lowers projected yearly GDP expansion to 0.9%
Russia's economy has shown a mix of resilience and volatility in recent years, with its GDP reaching 201.15 trillion rubles in 2024, equivalent to $6.92 trillion, marking a growth of 4.3%. However, this growth came against the backdrop of a state budget deficit of 3.79 trillion rubles in 2025.
In July 2025, the European Union introduced a price cap on Russian crude oil as part of its 18th sanctions package. The cap, initially set at $60 in 2022, was revised down to $47.6 per barrel, remaining 15% below the market price. This move was aimed at reducing Russia's oil revenue.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for Russia's economic growth several times. In 2023, the IMF reduced its forecast from 1.5% to 0.9%. The inflation forecast for 2025 has risen to 7.6%.
The Russian Ministry of Finance aims to collect 52.8 billion rubles in fines from traffic violators in 2025. The Ministry of Economic Development, however, has reduced its expectations for oil prices in its macroeconomic forecast for 2025 and the following three years. For 2026-2028, the price forecast is $72, compared to the previous forecast of $77 in 2026 and $74.5 in 2027.
The IMF attributes the downgrade to "tightening policy and lower oil prices." In April 2025, the Ministry of Economic Development made similar adjustments to its forecasts.
Historically, the accuracy of IMF and other international financial institutions' (IFIs) forecasts for Russia's economic growth has shown mixed results. Pre-2022 forecasts generally projected moderate growth for Russia driven by natural resource exports and domestic consumption. However, these forecasts often underestimated structural challenges such as demographic decline, corruption, and labor shortages.
Post-2022, the conflict and related Western sanctions represented a major unanticipated shock. Contrary to some pessimistic expectations, Russia’s economy showed resilience and even growth in 2023, driven largely by increased government spending on defense and sustained domestic consumption. This growth, however, created inflationary pressures and an output gap, which subsequent forecasts revised downward toward stagnation or recession by 2025-2026.
IFIs have had to revise their growth outlooks frequently as sanctions deepened and geopolitical dynamics evolved. Forecast accuracy was challenged by the unprecedented nature of sanctions, Russia’s countermeasures, and the global economic environment. For example, the IMF anticipated near-zero or negative growth for Russia in 2025, aligning more closely with actual emerging stagnation and recession predictions seen by mid-2025.
Despite short-term volatility and cyclical effects, IFIs generally expect Russia to experience relatively steady but modest growth over the long term, constrained by demographic decline and structural issues.
In summary, IMF and similar institutions’ forecasts have been reasonably accurate on larger trends and medium-term prospects but less reliable in the face of sudden geopolitical shocks like the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and sanctions, where actual economic outcomes diverged notably from early projections. Forecast adjustments throughout 2023-2025 better matched emerging realities, illustrating the challenge IFIs face in predicting growth under high uncertainty.
[1] World Bank, "Russia: Overview," accessed September 2025, www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/overview
[2] International Monetary Fund, "Russia: Recent Economic Developments," accessed September 2025, www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) aims to revise its economic growth forecast for Russia, taking into account the recent oil price revisions from the Ministry of Economic Development. The Finance Ministry, on the other hand, expects to collect a significant amount of money from traffic fines in 2025, as part of their business operations.
