In 2025, the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported a drop in the price level during the initial seven days, marking the beginning of deflation.

In 2025, the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported a drop in the price level during the initial seven days, marking the beginning of deflation.

In a surprising turn of events, Rosstat, Russia's federal statistics service, recorded weekly deflation for the first time in 2025 during the week of July 15 to 21. Consumer prices fell 0.05% compared to the previous week, marking a significant shift after a slight inflation of 0.02% the week before [1][2]. This is the first weekly deflation since September 2024.

The primary factor contributing to this weekly deflation was a sharper seasonal decline in prices for fruit and vegetable products, which dropped by 3.48% week on week. This decline was significant enough to offset small price increases elsewhere, resulting in an overall drop in consumer prices during the week [2].

At the same time, price growth in non-food goods and services remained very modest, increasing only 0.08% each [2]. This stability in non-food prices played a crucial role in maintaining the overall consumer price level.

Analysts expect this trend to support continued monetary easing, such as a key interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia, aimed at reducing inflation levels further [2].

The decrease in prices for fruit and vegetable products was not limited to a single item. The price of cucumbers decreased by 6.8%, white cabbage by 8.3%, and potatoes by 7.3%. The price of beets also saw a significant drop of 9.2% [1].

However, it's not all good news. The price of some medications, such as Levomekol, activated charcoal, Valoidol, and Analgin, has increased [1].

In conclusion, the first weekly deflation in 2025 recorded by Rosstat mainly reflects a pronounced seasonal decrease in fruit and vegetable prices, combined with stable non-food prices contributing to an overall slight reduction in consumer price levels [1][2]. This development could pave the way for further monetary easing measures in Russia.

[1] Ministry of Economic Development [2] Rosstat data

The sharp seasonal decline in prices for fruit and vegetable products, as reported by Rosstat, primarily contributed to the first weekly deflation in 2025. This decline, shown in the decreased prices of various items like cucumbers, white cabbage, potatoes, and beets, was significant enough to outweigh small price increases elsewhere.

Analysts anticipate this trend to reinforce continued monetary easing, potentially leading to a key interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia aimed at reducing inflation levels further.

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