Grains Market: Wheat Takes Steps to Surpass $5 Mark Once More
Wheat Market Remains Firm Amid Tight Supplies and Strong Export Demand
Current trends in the wheat market across major exchanges (CBOT, KCBT, MGEX) indicate mixed but generally firm conditions for the 2025/26 marketing year. This is due to tight supplies and strong export demand, as well as favorable premium pricing in spring wheat varieties.
On CBOT, the September 2025 wheat contract closed around $5.06 per bushel on August 25, reflecting slightly lower futures than earlier in the month. However, the market is supported by strong U.S. export sales and tighter supplies. U.S. cumulative wheat sales for 2025/26 reached 11.03 million metric tons, the strongest since 2013/14 at this stage of the season, with total old crop export commitments nearing 98% of USDA targets.
On KCBT, the futures, which generally trade at a premium to CBOT due to softer red winter wheat conditions, have been influenced by weather and export dynamics. Specific prices were not detailed in the recent reports, but overall market sentiment remains cautious due to speculative funds holding net short positions over 176,000 contracts, indicating bearish sentiment despite fundamental tightness.
On MGEX, the variety, typically hard red spring wheat, showed stronger pricing. The September 2025 contract closed at about $5.70 a bushel, with the September 2026 contract stronger at $6.42 a bushel, marking a premium over CBOT wheat reflecting quality differentials and localized supply concerns.
The European Commission estimates the EU soft wheat exports at 1.78 MMT from July 1 to August 17, which is less than half of the exports in the same period last year. This further emphasizes the tight supply situation in the global wheat market.
Weather remains a key factor, with limited precipitation forecast across much of the Corn Belt but some relief in northern states, affecting late-planted crops and crop conditions generally. Export demand remains robust, with new crop sales already nearly half of USDA’s annual target and export commitments reaching near-record levels at this time of the year.
In summary, while speculative short positions add bearish pressure, tight supplies, strong export sales, and favorable premium pricing in spring wheat varieties support a cautious but firm wheat market outlook across CBOT, KCBT, and MGEX exchanges as of August 2025.
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On December 25, the closing prices were as follows: CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/4, KCBT Hard Red Winter Wheat futures closed at $4.99 1/2, and MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 3/4. The US winter wheat harvest is 94% complete, which is 1% ahead of the normal pace. Spring wheat conditions were listed at 50% good/excellent, up 1%.
[1] Source: Reuters, August 25, 2025. [2] Source: USDA, August 12, 2025. [3] Source: Minneapolis Grain Exchange, August 25, 2025. [4] Source: USDA, August 10, 2025. [5] Source: USDA, August 24, 2025.
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