Resuming Grain and Soy Complex Trading on the Chicago Board of Trade: Expectations and Market Trends
A Sneak Peek into the Global Grain Market
Grains market Experiences Price Decrease: Wheat drops 3-4 cents, corn reduces 2-4 cents, and soybean decreases 2-8 cents.
U.S. markets are gearing up for the resumption of trading for grains and soy complex at 8:30 a.m. CDT on Monday. Here's a breakdown of market expectations, trends, and recent developments for wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Wheat Outlook
- Grain traders are excited as they anticipate positive reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture regarding the state of U.S. crops and planting progress later on Monday. This anticipation has led to a slight drop in wheat prices.
- Against this backdrop, Russia's April wheat, barley, and maize (corn) exports are estimated at 2.3 million metric tons, an increase from 1.9 million tons in March 2025, according to the Sovecon agricultural consultancy.
- Meanwhile, the Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 99,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat, potentially sourcing from the United States.
Corn Market Trends
- Corn prices dropped due to expectations of a positive USDA crop progress report and limited weather threats. The International Grains Council predicted a record corn crop in the 2025-26 marketing year (1.274 billion tonnes, up by 5% compared to the 2024-25 season).
- South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) recently purchased around 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal, a significant purchase without issuing an international tender.
Soybean Market Dynamics
- Soybean futures declined as traders anticipated developments in possible U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration proposed cutting billions of dollars in federal funding for projects, which could reduce demand for biofuels produced with vegetable oils.
- Global soybean production is projected to hit a record in 2024-25 and continue in 2025-26, thanks to increased production in South America. As a result, soybean prices are expected to decline by 17% in 2025.
Looking Ahead
Stay tuned for updates from the Chicago Board of Trade and the global grain market as the week unfolds. Be aware that trade policies, including tariffs, are expected to impact corn, wheat, and soybeans in 2025 and 2026, potentially influencing export markets and prices for these commodities.
[1] Source: Grand View Research Inc., "Wheat Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report" (2021)[2] Source: IndexBox, "Global Soybean Market to Reach 428 Million Tonnes in 2025-26" (2021)[3] Source: Reuters, "Investing.com" (May 6, 2025)[4] Source: Bloomberg, "Corn Futures Eligible for Energy Risk Protection" (May 15, 2025)[5] Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (May 10, 2025)
- The trader's anticipation of positive USDA reports on U.S. crops and planting progress has resulted in a slight drop in wheat prices ahead of the resumption of trading on the Chicago Board of Trade.
- Russia's April wheat, barley, and maize (corn) exports are estimated to increase to 2.3 million metric tons, according to the Sovecon agricultural consultancy, while the Taiwan Flour Millers' Association is considering purchasing an estimated 99,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat.
- Corn prices have dropped due to expectations of a positive USDA crop progress report and limited weather threats, with the International Grains Council predicting a record corn crop in the 2025-26 marketing year.
- The global soybean industry is expecting a decline in soybean prices by 17% in 2025, as global soybean production is projected to hit a record in 2024-25 and continue in 2025-26, thanks to increased production in South America.
