Gold profits expected to boost Barrick's Q2 earnings, with focus on controversial Mali project at stake
In the world of mining, the ongoing dispute between Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) and the Malian government over the Loulo-Gounkoto project in Mali has left a significant impact on the company's earnings and stock price.
Current retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Barrick Gold Corp is 'bullish,' with retail chatter about the company being 'high.' Investors are keenly looking for updates about Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto project, as the project faced significant operational disruptions in 2025 due to government actions, including seizure and provisional administration. This situation led to a $1.04 billion net charge impacting Barrick’s earnings, reflecting deconsolidation of the mine from Barrick's accounts.
Despite these challenges, Barrick continues negotiations with Malian authorities and aims to resolve the situation to potentially restart operations. The ongoing dispute has markedly affected Barrick’s earnings and stock price, but the company’s focus on other strong-performing projects, strategic divestments, share buybacks, and ongoing discussions with Malian authorities could mitigate medium-term impacts.
The suspension and seizure of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex have partly offset by gains elsewhere, such as a $745 million gain from selling its 50% stake in the Donlin Gold project. Barrick’s second-quarter 2025 results show strong overall production growth from other assets, leading to increased earnings per share and operational cash flow, supporting stock price resilience despite Loulo-Gounkoto issues.
Gold prices during the quarter are expected to be higher compared to the year-ago levels for Barrick Gold Corp. Last month, Newmont reported an average realized gold price of $3,320 per ounce during the second quarter, compared to $2,347 a year earlier. However, Barrick's gains are far behind Newmont's 81.2% rise this year.
Barrick Gold Corp's quarterly earnings report is scheduled for Monday. Analysts expect Barrick Gold Corp to report earnings of $0.46 per share and revenue of $3.82 billion for the quarter ended June 30. According to a report by Morningstar from July, Barrick Gold Corp was trading at a 15% discount compared to its fair valuation due to the ongoing dispute with Mali.
Despite the challenges, Barrick Gold Corp has gained over 48% this year amid the gold rally. The company has gained 8.3% over the past week, indicating a positive trend.
[1] Barrick Gold Corp Faces $1.04 Billion Loss Due to Mali Mine Dispute [2] Barrick Gold Corp's Q2 Results Show Resilience Despite Loulo-Gounkoto Issues [3] Barrick Gold Corp's Loulo-Gounkoto Mine Under Provisional Administration [4] Barrick Gold Corp Seeks to Resume Loulo-Gounkoto Operations [5] Barrick Gold Corp's 2024 Gold Production Drops Due to Loulo-Gounkoto Dispute
- The ongoing dispute between Barrick Gold Corp and the Malian government over the Loulo-Gounkoto project has not only impacted the company's earnings and stock price, but it has also affected their interaction with the real-estate sector, given that the project involves significant land and mining rights investment.
- In light of the challenges faced by Barrick Gold Corp due to the Mali mine dispute, financial analysts are recommending diversified investing portfolios, as the company's strong-performing projects, strategic divestments, and ongoing negotiations with Malian authorities could potentially help mitigate medium-term impacts on their financial standing and the overall industry.
