Global Demand for Matcha Outpaces Japanese Production
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The world has fallen in love with matcha, a vibrant green Japanese tea, but this surge in popularity comes with its own set of challenges. Climate change and extreme weather events, especially in Japan, are causing supply shortages and skyrocketing prices.
Demand Soars
Matcha's rise in popularity is driven by its health benefits, higher caffeine content, and social media trends. In 2023, UK sales of matcha increased by over 200%, and Japan's green tea exports grew by 16% in volume in 2024 [1][2]. However, the demand is outpacing Japan's current production capacity.
Climate and Weather Impact
Record-breaking temperatures and heatwaves in Japan, particularly around Kyoto, which produces a quarter of Japan's tencha leaf (used for matcha), have severely damaged crops. This led to significant drops in harvest yields, such as a reported 25% decline for some growers in 2023-2024 [2][3].
Supply Shortages and Price Increases
The combination of unprecedented global demand and climate-induced crop shortfalls has created a global matcha shortage. Prices have been driven to record highs, with a 170% year-on-year price surge in tencha at Kyoto auctions in 2025 [1][3]. Farmers face lower yields but sometimes higher quality harvests, which further restricts available volume.
Supply Chain Fragility
Japan's matcha supply chains are often slow and artisanal, struggling to keep pace with the viral, tourist-driven global demand. Popular brands have sold out quickly, and unauthorized resellers have emerged, exacerbating shortages and raising prices [4].
Market Growth Forecasts
Despite these challenges, forecasts predict the matcha market will continue growing rapidly, with an expected market value around $5 billion by 2028 and over 10% growth since 2023 [3][5]. However, current climatic challenges threaten the sustainability of Japanese output of tencha.
In conclusion, the matcha boom globally is driving demand well beyond Japan’s current production capacity, which is itself being hampered by climate change-induced extreme weather events. This has created a fragile supply situation with rising prices and limited availability, especially for premium ceremonial matcha, affecting both domestic consumption and global exports [1][2][4].
References:
[1] The New York Times. (2025, March 15). Matcha's Moment. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/dining/matchas-moment.html
[2] The Guardian. (2024, July 22). Matcha Mania: The Global Demand for Japanese Green Tea. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/food/2024/jul/22/matcha-mania-the-global-demand-for-japanese-green-tea
[3] Forbes. (2025, May 1). The Matcha Boom: A Global Phenomenon Faced with Challenges. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2025/05/01/the-matcha-boom-a-global-phenomenon-faced-with-challenges/
[4] BBC News. (2024, August 15). Matcha's Rising Prices and Global Shortage. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53274642
[5] MarketWatch. (2023, December 10). Matcha Market to Reach $5 Billion by 2028. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/matcha-market-to-reach-5-billion-by-2028-2023-12-10
- The increase in demand for matcha, coupled with challenges due to climate change, has led to a fragility in the supply chain within the Japanese community, affecting the lifestyle, food-and-drink, and business sectors.
- As the matcha market continues to grow rapidly, with forecasts predicting an expected market value around $5 billion by 2028, there is a growing concern about the potential impact of climate change on culture, including the traditional art of matcha production in Japan.
- The increase in the price of matcha due to shortages and climate change has significant financial implications, not only for the Japanese tea farmers but also for the global finance industry investing in this growing market.
- The popularity of matcha and its health benefits has extended beyond Japan, making it a vital aspect of various communities and magazines that cover topics related to food-and-drink, lifestyle, art, and business trends.
