German bank Berenberg predicts DAX closing at 22,000 by year-end 2025.
Berenberg's Bullish Equity Market Outlook
Berenberg Bank continues to back the equity markets, believing they'll keep climbing into 2025. The bank anticipates the DAX to hit 21,000 points by mid-2025 and 22,000 by year-end. Similarly, the S&P 500 is predicted to see further gains, with Berenberg expecting it to reach 6,200 points by June 2025 and 6,500 by the end of the year.
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European Stocks Ahead: Moderate Growth Awaits
Berenberg's forecast for key European stocks like the DAX concentrates on corporate earnings and macroeconomic conditions. For instance, leading DAX company Fresenius anticipates 4-6% organic revenue growth and 3-7% adjusted operating profit growth in 2025, signaling a positive corporate earnings trend within the DAX ecosystem. Similarly, Vonovia, another DAX player, projects a total return of around 9-13% annually between 2025 and 2028, assuming stable market yields. These optimistic corporate forecasts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for DAX-associated equity performance due to steady earnings growth.
S&P 500 Soaring: Pinpointed Revisions at Play
Berenberg's recent analysis reveals targeted company-level price revisions, showcasing nuanced views on earnings and cost pressures. For example, Mondelez International's 2025 EPS forecast was raised by 1.1%, accompanied by a price target lift from $70 to $77. This upward move is driven by anticipated organic growth of 4.9% and decreased foreign exchange headwinds, hinting at earnings resilience within the S&P 500. Conversely, Ecolab's 2025 EPS estimate was slightly scaled back by 1%, despite revenue boosts from price surcharges and FX benefits. This underlines mixed but largely stable profit projections in the U.S. market.
Equity Market Sentiment: Bumpy Road Ahead?
UBS's Q1 2025 results, indicative of broader market conditions, displayed a slight decline in net profit, but improved pre-tax core earnings and strong net inflows. Caution over tariffs and inflation risks were voiced amidst these results, aligning with Berenberg's own concerns about market volatility accompanying solid earnings prospects.
The Gist of Berenberg's Forecast: Earnings Drive Moderate Gains
Despite lacking explicit index price targets, Berenberg's earnings-focused forecasts imply moderate annualized total returns of approximately 9-13% for key stocks. This suggests that both the DAX and S&P 500 could see moderate increases through 2025. Therefore, Berenberg'sAnalysis points to a cautiously optimistic equity market climate by 2025, where solid earnings growth balances external risks, leading to moderately positive returns for the considered indices.
- Berenberg Bank, known for its bullish equity market outlook, also provides forecasts for key stocks, such as the DAX and S&P 500.
- In their forecast for the DAX, Berenberg focuses on corporate earnings and macroeconomic conditions, with leading companies like Fresenius anticipating positive growth in 2025.
- Berenberg's analysis of the S&P 500 shows targeted revisions at the company level, like the raise in Mondelez International's 2025 EPS forecast and price target.
- Berenberg's earnings-focused forecasts suggest moderate annualized total returns of approximately 9-13% for key stocks, implying moderate increases for both the DAX and S&P 500 by 2025.
