Sneaky Cavities in the EU's Gas Cut-Off Plan
European Gas Import Ban from Russia Contains Exemptions - Insights from Lithuanian Minister
VILNIUS - The European Commission's ambitious goal of axing Russian gas imports by year-end 2027 might not be as ironclad as it appears, owing to a few sneaky loopholes that some EU countries could potentially exploit for their advantage. Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas shared his concerns on this issue recently.
According to Vaiciunas, the plan's vagueness could allow EU members to keep importing Russian gas, not just the close diplomatic allies of the Kremlin, Hungary and Slovakia. He pointed out one such vulnerability, which stems from Article 15 of the regulation: if there are supply security issues in one or more EU countries, the Commission may grant exemptions for Russian gas imports - there's no clear definition of what constitutes a "supply security issue."
"That shady Article 15 could be the elephant in the room, because it doesn't lay down any specific criteria," Vaiciunas warned, claiming that some EU members will undoubtedly try to squeeze through these loopholes.
The EU's executive arm unveiled a proposal on Tuesday to ban all Russian gas imports by December 2027, an end to decades of reliance on the unpredictable neighbor. But the plan won't be enacted overnight; it requires approval from the European Council and Parliament. The Commission has adopted a clever strategy, relying on trade and energy laws instead of imposing sanctions to terminate imports from Russia, aiming to bypass resistance from Slovakia and Hungary.
The proposal calls for halting Russian gas imports under new contracts as of January 1, 2026 and ending imports under existing short-term contracts by June 17, 2026. Finally, all remaining imports would be prohibited by the end of 2027. Limited data suggest that Russia accounted for 19% of the EU's gas consumption last year, down from 45% before the conflict. Last year, 32 billion cubic meters of gas seeped into the EU through the TurkStream pipeline, and another 20 billion cubic meters via LNG ships.
Although the regulations seem straightforward, Astute observers might notice a few loopholes that could render the plan less than watertight:
- Flexible Exemptions: The EU's qualifications for granting exemptions are open to interpretation, which opens the door for some members to continue importing Russian gas beyond what's strictly necessary.
- Loose Definitions for contract types: The plan is unclear about how long-term contracts will be addressed in the future, and countries may manipulate the rules surrounding existing contracts to keep their Russian suppliers.
- Wiggle Room in New Contracts: Member states might try to negotiate fresh contracts with Russia before the deadline or find ways to reinterpret the definition of "new contracts" to continue importing Russian gas.
- Vague Loopholes: The lack of clarity in the exemptions left haven in the plan gives more room for interpretation, allowing countries sympathetic to Russia to potentially sneak through and maintain imports.
The exploitation of these loopholes could weaken the EU's determination to lessen its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Even though relying on trade and energy laws instead of sanctions is intended to avoid opposition from member states like Hungary and Slovakia, it may not completely close the door on potential loopholes. The European Parliament and Council must approve the plan, and this may result in uneven enforcement across member states, depending on their political and economic interests.
- The EU's ability to limit Russian gas imports, as outlined in the proposed plan, could be compromised due to vague definitions, particularly in relation to policy-and-legislation concerning energy and finance.
- The potential exploitation of these loopholes could weaken the EU's industry-wide shift towards energy independence, ultimately undermining the independence from Russian fossil fuels that the EU aims to achieve.
- Within the realm of general-news, the political implications of these loopholes could lead to diverse enforcement across EU member states, with some states potentially prioritizing finance and industry interests over the broader goals of the EU's energy policy.
