Electricity shortages anticipated to intensify in Kazakhstan
Revamped Article:
Kazakhstan's energy officials are bracing for deeper electricity shortages over the next two years, potentially intensifying the country's dependency on imports and raising the specter of unscheduled blackouts. According to a report by LS on January 25, energy consumption this year is estimated to reach 120.6 billion kilowatt hours, while production will fall short at 118.3 kilowatt hours. Demand and production will both expand in 2025, but the deficit is projected to widen to 3.3 billion kilowatt hours, as per the Energy Ministry's predictions.
Relief might be on the horizon in 2026 and 2027, as the government anticipates production outpacing demand. However, deficits are expected to persist in the subsequent three years, according to a government forecast spanning the 2024-2030 period.
The culprit behind Kazakhstan's inability to cater to the nation's entire electricity needs is a combination of rising demand and an electricity grid split into three geographically distinct regions: the north, the south, and the west. The western zone is expected to produce power beyond domestic requirements this year, but since it is not connected to the combined north-south grid, the surplus cannot be delivered to regions with the highest demand.
Energy officials anticipate that a project to link the western zone to the rest of the national grid will be completed by 2028, thereby setting up the infrastructure needed to alleviate the current imbalance between the regions. Kazakhstan's power grid is interconnected across borders with neighbors Russia, China, and several Central Asian countries to the south.
The long-term solution posing controversy for Kazakhstan's ever-swelling electricity needs is the construction of a nuclear power plant. In September, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev distanced himself from making a final decision on the matter by announcing a referendum. Although he has expressed support for the idea in the past, no date has been set for the vote as of yet.
At a government meeting in February 2022, Tokayev urged that without nuclear power, Kazakhstan stands to "lose its entire economy." He accused energy skeptics as " populists who don't comprehend economic realities." The modernization of the nation's electric grid, including the ambitious West-South DC line project, is part of a broader strategy to modernize the grid through 2035. This multi-year effort aims to unify the grid across the country and integrate the western zone into the national grid, enhancing the country's ability to distribute electricity more effectively and potentially reducing the need for imports. Additionally, diversifying the energy mix, including the development of nuclear power, is planned to play a significant role in minimizing reliance on fossil fuels and Russian imports.
In light of Kazakhstan's escalating electricity shortages, the government is actively considering renewable-energy solutions to address the deficit. For instance, the modernization of the nation's electric grid, such as the West-South DC line project, could help alleviate regional imbalances and simultaneously promote efficient energy distribution. Moreover, the finance sector might need to invest heavily in renewable-energy resources, due to the government's intentions to diversify the energy mix and minimize reliance on fossil fuels and Russian imports.
