Econ experts assign 45% chance of U.S. economic recession
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The economic futures of ol' US of A look mighty grimmish, folks, according to a bunch of top-shelf economists who got their heads screwed on straight. So says a recent Reuters survey that's been causing quite a stir over yonder.
With President Trump hollerin' about "Liberation Day" and slappin' heavy tariffs on all them foreign folks, things ain't lookin' too hot for the economy. And now, with a 45% chance of a recession loomin' over us in the next 12 months, it's startin' to feel like we might just be back in a doghouse again.
Just a few months back, the odds of a recession were chillin' at 25%, but ain't no one feelin' proud of themselves for guessin' wrong. Things change quicker'n a fox runnin' for cover under a hail of bullets.
According to ING's chief economist, James Knightley, people ain't feelin' too peachy keen about their bankrolls. With prices climbin', jobs gettin' scarce, and prosperity fleein' the land, it's a lethal combo for folks to feel safe spendin' their hard-earned cash. Consumer spending makes up around two-thirds of the country's economic output, so it's note-worthy when things ain't lookin' too swell in them parts.
The experts say the GDP will only grow by a pitiful 1.4% this year, compared to the 2.2% forecast just a few months ago. And for 2026, they're predictin' an even worse 1.5% growth. King of heavy tariffs, James Egelhof from BNP Paribas, reckons the uncertainty surrounding these policies is gonna damage the economy, increase inflation, and rank up the risks for some nasty surprises down the road.
But here's the kicker: More than 60% of the economists polled expect the Federal Reserve to keep their benchmark interest rate steady until at least July, despite the predicted economic slowdown. Maybe the folks at the Federal Reserve figure they can wiggle their way outta this one without breakin' a sweat.
On a brighter note, the increased prices due to tariffs could leading to price stability, which some economists think takes priority over full employment. But whether that'll be enough to keep the country floatin' or send it sinkin' faster than the Titanic ain't clear yet.
(Originally reported by Indradip Ghosh, written by Rene Wagner, and edited by Olaf Brenner. Email the newsroom at [email protected] for any questions or concerns.)
- The recent Reuters survey, causing a stir, suggests a likely recession in the US within the next 12 months due to heavy tariffs declared by President Trump.
- James Knightley, ING's chief economist, has expressed concerns about the financial, business, and consumer sectors, as prices rise, jobs become more scarce, and prosperity declines.
- The GDP growth for this year is predicted to be a low 1.4%, compared to the 2.2% forecast just a few months ago, and an even worse 1.5% growth predicted for 2026.
- James Egelhof from BNP Paribas believes that the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to damage the economy, increase inflation, and create risks for unpleasant surprises.
