Disruptions looming in global chocolate production as Turkey's hazelnut crops face winter perils
The global chocolate industry is facing a challenging year due to a severe shortage of hazelnuts, a key ingredient in popular products like Nutella and Ferrero Rocher. The shortage is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions in Turkey, the world's largest supplier of hazelnuts, which has led to a significant reduction in this year's harvest.
According to the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KiB), the 2025 hazelnut crop is projected to be 520,000 metric tons, a decrease from the initially expected 750,000 tons. This represents a 20-50% reduction compared to previous years, depending on the source and whether one measures inshell nuts or kernels.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) has estimated the crop at 520,000 metric tons, a decrease from the initially expected 750,000 tons. This reduction, combined with the fact that Turkey produces about 65-70% of the world’s hazelnuts, has caused the global supply to be affected by about 35% overall.
As a result, wholesale hazelnut prices in Turkey have surged sharply, with official purchase prices increasing by approximately 50% compared to last season. This price increase reflects the scarcity and higher production costs for farmers. Export volumes have dropped but are still substantial; however, some stock from previous surplus years has been exhausted, limiting buffer supplies.
The potential impact on popular hazelnut-containing products is significant. Ferrero, the largest global buyer accounting for about 25% of Turkey’s hazelnut exports, has reportedly plans to mitigate supply disruption through sourcing from alternative regions such as Italy, Chile, and the USA. However, the company remains concerned about price volatility. Other chocolate producers have begun reducing hazelnut content or substituting alternative nuts, fruits, or caramels to manage costs.
The shortage exposes the vulnerability of crop-dependent sectors to the effects of climate change, particularly hazelnuts, which are sensitive to spring frosts. Experts have warned that erratic weather could become more frequent, threatening hazelnuts, almonds, and walnuts.
In summary, the global hazelnut shortage is likely to cause higher production costs and potential availability challenges in the coming months, with effects possibly extending into 2026 depending on harvest outcomes and market adaptations. The cost of Nutella and other chocolates and baked goods may increase due to the hazelnut shortage.
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- The international chocolate industry grapples with a severe hazelnut shortage, leading to potential price increases on global chocolates and baked goods.
- The world's most significant supplier of hazelnuts, Turkey, is expected to produce only 520,000 metric tons in 2025, a 20-50% reduction compared to previous years.
- Europe, which relies heavily on Turkish hazelnuts, faces a potential 35% drop in global supply, causing concern among major chocolate manufacturers like Ferrero.
- As climate change impacts weather patterns, experts warn that erratic conditions could increase, threatening not only hazelnuts but also other nut crops, such as almonds and walnuts.
- In the face of this shortage, environmental-science researchers stress the need for sustainable farming practices to protect vulnerable crops from the effects of climate change.
- Meanwhile, finance analysts predict increased costs for the industry due to the scarcity of hazelnuts, affecting the energy and industrial sectors, as well as the overall global-cuisines landscape.
- The culture of popular food-and-drink items, such as Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, may undergo changes as producers adapt to the shortage by reducing hazelnut content or substituting alternative ingredients.
- In the long run, this hazelnut shortage could lead to a shift in the industry, with regional changes in the production of global-cuisines ingredients and a greater focus on sustainable farming practices in environmental-science.
