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In the latest economic updates, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025, projecting a growth rate of 3.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from its previous estimate [2][3]. This positive outlook is attributed to factors such as easing trade tensions, lower effective tariffs, and some fiscal expansion in major economies.
However, professional services network PwC's forecast is somewhat more conservative, projecting global growth at 2.8% in 2024, declining slightly to 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, citing geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism as growth dampeners [1].
Here's a breakdown of the growth estimates for major economies:
- The US is expected to grow just over 2% in 2025, according to PwC, with growth resuming mid-2024 amid some economic headwinds being overcome [4].
- China’s growth is projected around 4.6% in 2025, showing a slowdown from previous years [1].
- The eurozone is expected to experience subdued growth of about 0.9% in 2025, improving to 1.4% in 2026 as Germany’s economy recovers [1].
- India stands out with strong growth exceeding 6%, maintaining robust momentum through 2025 [1].
Regarding Russia’s GDP growth, although the sources discussed major economies, they do not provide explicit current forecasts or comparisons for Russia’s GDP growth. Based on extrapolations from recent trends, Russia’s economy has faced challenges related to sanctions and geopolitical tensions, generally forecasting lower or stagnating GDP growth compared to these major economies.
In the US, economic growth showed a 0.6% m/m increase in June and a 1.6% y/y increase, compared to a 0.9% increase in May. Retail sales in China decreased by 0.1% m/m in June, and year-over-year growth slowed to 2.0% from 3.7%. Industrial production in Europe decreased in several sectors, while China's overall industrial production growth was 5.3% y/y in June and 6.0% y/y in H1.
Interestingly, China's export volume growth accelerated to 8.6% y/y in June, resulting in a record-high trade surplus of $99 billion. Cucumbers have seen the most significant decrease in price among all goods, down 40.3% since January, while potatoes saw the largest year-to-date price increase of 91%. Despite the arrival of domestically produced new harvest, cucumber prices have risen by 3% since the start of the month.
Inflation in China was accelerated this month by the scheduled increase in utilities tariffs, rising prices for unregulated services, and the traditional summer increase in construction materials. The growth rate of non-food items decreased from 14.4% to 12.3%, and food expenditure increased from 13.7% to 14.2%. Consumer prices in Russia rose by 0.11% over the week ending July 15.
To achieve the official 2024 growth target of "around 5%", more substantial government stimulus is needed in China due to weak domestic demand and the ongoing real estate crisis. To achieve this, China aims to boost exports, invest in infrastructure, and provide support to small and medium-sized enterprises.
In summary, global growth in 2025 is projected around 3.0% by the IMF and slightly lower by PwC. Russia’s GDP growth is generally expected to lag behind major economies like the US, China, and India amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges, but no precise latest forecast is provided in these results.
The finance industry may find the projected global economic growth rate of 3.0% in 2025, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an encouraging sign, especially considering PwC's slightly more conservative forecast at 2.6%. However, the industry should note country-specific growth rates, such as India's robust growth of over 6%, and Russia's growth, which is generally anticipated to lag behind major economies.
