Bitcoin's Golden Cross confirmed on the one-hour chart: Authentic climb or deception?
In the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is making headlines as it inches closer to its previous all-time high (ATH) of $111,970.17, set on May 22, 2025. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $107,243.78, representing a 0.75% increase over the last 24 hours.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has consolidated between $105,000 and $108,000, but recent developments suggest a potential new ATH in the near future.
One such development is the golden cross formation, a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's hourly chart shows the nine-day moving average crossing above the 21-day moving average, indicating a potential trend reversal. This is further supported by an increase in trading volume, with Bitcoin's volume up by 11.75% to $46.92 billion.
Several key factors are contributing to this potential new ATH. Institutional and corporate adoption of Bitcoin has been on the rise, with the market capitalization of Bitcoin recently surpassing $2 trillion. This institutional demand is driving a reduction in volatility and creating a more stable investment environment, which historically precedes price surges.
The macroeconomic environment also favours Bitcoin. The US M2 money supply has reached record highs, increasing money in circulation and inflation risks, while the US Dollar Index has dropped to its lowest levels since February 2022. Bitcoin has historically displayed an inverse correlation with the dollar, acting as a hedge against inflation.
Post-geopolitical rally patterns also suggest a potential new ATH. Bitcoin has shown a strong tendency to rally after global geopolitical shocks. Recent conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran caused a temporary dip, but Bitcoin quickly rebounded and has entered a bullish phase. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied on average 31% in the 50 days following major geopolitical or macroeconomic crises.
Supply and demand dynamics are also playing a role. Institutions are currently purchasing Bitcoin at a pace exceeding miner supply, creating scarcity which can push prices higher. The global environment of rate cuts is also flooding markets with liquidity, some of which is flowing into Bitcoin.
Analyst price targets and market sentiment also point towards a new ATH. Several major financial institutions and analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching between $135,000 and $200,000 by late 2025, with probability markets assigning a high chance (over 60%) of a new ATH before August 2025.
Investors are actively engaging in an acquisition of Bitcoin ahead of a possible rally. The flow of capital into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be a significant factor in the next price surge for Bitcoin. The $3.85 billion accumulation of Bitcoin by BlackRock and the massive inflows into ETFs are indicative of this trend.
However, it's important to note that while these indicators are bullish, they do not guarantee a new ATH. If the golden cross reverts, Bitcoin might continue its price stagnation. Bitcoin is currently oversold on the six-hour chart, potentially triggering a rebound above its recent trading range.
In conclusion, the combined impact of strong institutional demand, favourable macroeconomic conditions, historical rally patterns following geopolitical events, supply scarcity, and growing investor optimism collectively signal a significant probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the near term.
Crypto investors are closely watching Bitcoin's performance, as it demonstrates a potential new all-time high (ATH) due to increased institutional and corporate adoption, a golden cross formation, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Major financial institutions and analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching between $135,000 and $200,000 by late 2025. Meanwhile, BlackRock and other institutions have amassed a significant amount of Bitcoin, indicating a growing buying interest among investors. However, the outcome is not guaranteed, as market conditions can change, and a reversal of the golden cross could result in continued price stagnation.
