Betting on Prediction Markets through Polymarket Results in meager awards for gamblers
In the world of gambling, two leading prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, are shaking things up by offering a unique twist on betting, competing with sportsbooks and pushing the boundaries of traditional gambling.
Polymarket and Kalshi: A New Breed of Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi are two distinct platforms, each with its own unique structure and evolving product offerings. Polymarket operates as a fully cryptocurrency-based platform, with all transactions and contracts blockchain-driven. The resolution of contract outcomes is decentralized, managed by holders of the UMA token who vote on event results. This governance model allows a broad diversity of contracts, including politically sensitive and fast-moving topics, with fewer bureaucratic delays. However, decision power is concentrated among large UMA token holders, raising concerns about "plutocracy"[1][4].
Kalshi, on the other hand, functions with US dollars and conventional banking, regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi maintains an in-house determination of contract outcomes and uses peer-to-peer trading rather than traditional odds setting. Despite using betting language and American odds format in marketing and platform interfaces, Kalshi asserts it operates differently from conventional gambling and does not need betting licenses[1][2].
A Comparison to Traditional Sportsbooks
When it comes to sports betting, traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel dominate the US market, with more than $20 billion wagers each in 2025, and a total US betting handle around $70 billion. They offer a full suite of betting products including parlays, props, and point spreads[3].
Kalshi has recently expanded from limited futures markets to include single-match markets and is expected to introduce parlay betting and other sportsbook-style products soon. Polymarket, focused on diverse and often politically oriented contracts, does not presently emphasize sportsbook-style offerings like parlays[4].
A Look at the Numbers
The table below summarises the key differences between the three platforms:
| Aspect | Polymarket | Kalshi | Traditional Sportsbooks | |---------------------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------------------|----------------------------------| | Currency | Cryptocurrency (Blockchain/UMA) | US Dollars (regulated via CFTC) | US Dollars (regulated by states) | | Outcome resolution | Decentralized UMA token voting | In-house outcome determination | Operator-set odds and outcomes | | Market diversity | Wide, fast-contract creation | Growing, adding sportsbook features| Wide, with full sportsbook products | | Parlay offerings | Not currently offered | Planned future feature indicated | Core offerings, widely available | | Revenue/volume | Not directly reported | $2B+ in sports trades (non-traditional volume) | $70B+ total handle in 2025 | | Regulatory stance | Crypto-based, less regulated | Argues non-gambling, CFTC-regulated| Highly regulated, state-licensed |
The Future of Prediction Markets
As these platforms continue to evolve, it will be interesting to see how they adapt and compete with traditional sportsbooks. With Kalshi positioning itself as a regulated prediction market platform bridging towards sportsbook-like offerings, and Polymarket remaining a crypto-driven decentralized prediction market, the landscape of gambling may change significantly in the coming years[1][2][3][4].
[1] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/03/01/kalshi-raises-55m-to-build-a-regulated-prediction-market-for-sports-and-politics/ [2] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/07/kalshi-is-a-new-crypto-prediction-market-that-doesnt-need-a-betting-license/ [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/kalshi-raises-50-million-to-make-bets-on-politics-and-more [4] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/12/07/polymarket-raises-50-million-to-build-a-crypto-prediction-market-for-politics-and-more/
People may find it intriguing as Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction market platforms, expand their offerings and compete with traditional sportsbooks in the realm of sports-betting. While Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform, focuses on diverse and politically oriented contracts, Kalshi, regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is planning to introduce sportsbook-style products such as parlay betting.
