Barrick Mining Shares Tipped to Reach $40 Mark
In Q1 2025, Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE: B) reported a significant increase in adjusted net earnings per share, up by 84% year-over-year, totaling roughly $3.09 billion. This strong performance was accompanied by a robust balance sheet, a low net debt of approximately $600 million, and strong margin discipline, with EBITDA margins above 50% and free cash flow at $375 million, which expanded over 10x compared to the first quarter of 2024.
However, the Mali dispute continues to be a near-term concern, affecting about 14% of Barrick's output and an estimated $1 billion in revenue for 2025. The suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali earlier this year contributed to the decrease in gold production for 2025, with the company anticipating gold production to be between 3.15 and 3.50 million ounces, down from about 3.9 million ounces in 2024.
Looking ahead, Barrick Mining Corp has a projected growth pathway toward mid-$30s to potentially over $40 over the next 2-3 years. This growth is anchored by Tier-One projects like Reko Diq in Pakistan and the Lumwana super-pit expansion in Zambia. If current trends persist, Barrick has a clear trajectory for re-rating, with $30-$35 as a base case and $40+ as an attainable bull-case scenario over the next two to three years.
If Barrick's EPS increases from $1.22 in 2024 to a range between $2.40 and $2.80 by 2026, the stock could climb to $26-$31. Barrick's net debt is low at approximately $600 million, leaving room for potential growth.
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Copper now accounts for approximately 20% of Barrick Mining Corp's output and is expected to reach 30% by 2029. Share buybacks continue to increase per-share value, further supporting the company's growth and potential for re-rating.
Barrick Mining Corp's reserves are strong, boasting 89 million ounces of gold and 18 million tonnes of copper. These Tier-One projects, expected to ramp up towards the latter part of the decade, could enhance Barrick's gold-equivalent production by approximately 30% by 2030.
In conclusion, while the Mali situation remains a near-term concern, Barrick Mining Corp's strong earnings, robust balance sheet, and growth opportunities through Tier-One projects position the company well for continued growth and potential re-rating in the coming years. The stock trades at a reasonable forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 11x based on current estimates.
- Barrick Mining Corp's growth opportunities, anchored by Tier-One projects like Reko Diq in Pakistan and the Lumwana super-pit expansion in Zambia, are in the mining industry, contributing to the company's revenue.
- The Finance sector has recognized Barrick Mining Corp's strong performance, with the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which focuses on growth, profitability, and financial stability, exceeding its all-cap stocks benchmark and delivering robust returns for investors.
