Anticipated outcomes from the unprecedented Federal Reserve gathering
The Federal Reserve is gearing up for an extraordinary meeting this week, with several new developments implicating the Fed's powerful board.
On Monday, Stephen Miran, a top economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, was confirmed by the Senate to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors. Miran, who will fill the seat of outgoing Governor Adriana Kugler until the end of January 2026, will participate in the Fed's upcoming meeting votes as a temporary member. However, his confirmation has elicited concerns from Democrats over his close ties with the president.
Another notable figure participating in the meeting is Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who President Trump tried to fire in late August. The courts are keeping Cook in her job while her lawsuit challenging Trump's attempt to oust her moves forward in litigation.
The Fed is expected to announce their first interest rate cut since December at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The interest rate cut is intended to support America's slowing labor market, as job growth during the summer was anemic, with employers adding an average of about 29,000 jobs in the three months ending in August. The number of unemployed people seeking work is now higher than the number of job openings.
Inflation has increased since the first quarter, but officials expect it to continue to slowly increase for a couple more months, with monthly tariff effects dissipating by early 2026. For months, consumer inflation readings have mostly come in as expected, despite the chaotic rollout of Trump's tariffs. According to Fed officials, President Trump's expansive tariffs might have only a limited impact on inflation.
Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, expects the effects of tariffs to work through the economy over the next two to three quarters and the impact on inflation to fade after that. Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, wrote in a recent social media post that "tariff-related price increases will be a one-off."
The Trump administration has been continuing to pressure the historically independent Fed. The administration seized on the Fed's ongoing $2.5 billion renovation of its headquarters in Washington, DC, as an opening to fire Powell. However, the courts have so far rejected Trump's attempt to fire Cook while her lawsuit challenges Trump's removal order moves forward.
The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, as reported by the Labor Department last week. Despite this, the Fed remains committed to maintaining price stability and promoting maximum employment.
As the Fed prepares for this week's meeting, the focus remains on how these new developments will shape monetary policy decisions and the future of the economy.
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