**ANNOUNCEMENT: Zimbabwe poised to maintain status as maize importer through 2025-2026**
Zimbabwe and Zambia, two key players in Southern Africa's maize market, have seen varying fortunes in the 2024/2025 marketing year. Zimbabwe was one of the countries that imported the most maize, with its domestic production falling far short of the 2 million tons required for annual consumption.
In contrast, Zambia's maize production for the same period was estimated at 3.66 million tons, according to government data. This significant increase from the previous season's 1.5 million tons was attributed to improved weather conditions and increased area planted for maize. As a result, Zambia's domestic maize consumption of approximately 2.8 million tons was met, leaving potential for the country to become a net exporter in the upcoming 2025/2026 marketing year.
However, specific quantitative data on Zambia’s maize imports and exports for 2025/2026 are not yet available. Market indicators for Zambia’s maize marketing season 2024/2025 suggest stable or increased domestic availability, which could potentially reduce import dependency. The harvest in Zambia is currently underway.
In Zimbabwe, the forecast for the 2025/2026 marketing year remains uncertain due to the country's reliance on imports during deficit seasons and limited export growth. The midsummer drought in Zimbabwe during the 2024/2025 marketing year led to a 60% decline in the country's maize production, necessitating imports to meet domestic needs. The 2024/2025 marketing year accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports.
The global maize trade is forecasted to contract by 7.6% in 2024/25 due to a significant drop in Chinese imports. This contraction may indirectly affect maize prices and trade flows in Southern Africa. However, the expected production increase in Brazil and the drought-impacted output in Argentina may influence global export availability but will have limited direct impact on Zimbabwe and Zambia apart from price signals.
In summary, while precise export/import figures for Zimbabwe and Zambia in 2025/2026 are not available, production trends and market signals suggest moderate growth or stability in Zambia’s maize production with potential for reduced imports, while Zimbabwe may continue to rely on imports with limited export expansion in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The 2025/2026 marketing year for maize in the Southern African region started in May. For more insights regarding the maize situation in Zambia and Southern Africa, tune into the latest podcast.
Industry experts have expressed varying opinions on the finance and energy implications of the maize market in Southern Africa, particularly for Zambia and Zimbabwe, in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The potential for reduced imports in Zambia, as suggested by the harvest's current progress and market indicators, could lead to decreased reliance on international finance for maize purchases, while increased domestic energy consumption from higher maize production would be significant. Conversely, Zimbabwe's continued import dependency for maize may put a strain on the country's finances due to the costs associated with purchases and potentially increasing import tariffs.
