A reexamination of Trump's Tariff Era demonstrates cost advantages - for those who appreciate heightened prices
In the four months since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, inflation rates have been on the rise, causing concern among voters who supported him based on his promises to lower prices.
The inflation rate for electricity over the past four months is running at 15.7%, more than four times what it was in Joe Biden's final year. This increase in energy costs has also impacted the production of electricity, with hefty tariffs on imported metals driving up costs for power companies looking to replace equipment or modernize the distribution grid.
The overall inflation rate is now higher than it was in Biden's last 12 months in office: 3.1% on an annualized basis, compared to 2.8%. This trend is not limited to energy costs, as inflation on groceries is running at 3.1% on an annualized basis, compared to 1.8% in Biden's final year.
One of Trump's top promises during his campaign to regain the White House was to lower grocery prices. However, his economic policies, which included high import tariffs such as the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs introduced in 2018, have contributed to job losses in import-dependent U.S. manufacturing and risked inflationary pressures.
Critics warned that such protectionism could raise inflation, including in food and energy sectors, due to supply chain disruptions and higher input costs. Despite these warnings, there is no specific record of Trump announcing measures to directly combat food or electricity inflation during his term.
Trump's economic policies have led to immense uncertainty, contributing to the current state of inflation. University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers stated that Trump has not delivered on his promise to lower prices. In fact, Wolfers expects no improvement in inflation given Trump's economic policies.
The trade war announced by Trump is the major reason he is failing to keep those promises, according to Wolfers and other economists. The cost of producing goods, including coffee, has increased due to Trump's tariffs on major exports, such as the 50% import tax on major coffee exporter Brazil.
Moreover, the Trump administration's policies are cracking down on free speech and targeting the media. Additionally, deportations and lower immigration under Trump's administration mean fewer workers, particularly affecting the agricultural sector.
A Fox News poll shows "the cost of living" is now Trump's worst issue, with 67% disapproving of how he handles it. Many voters who tipped the balance of the 2024 election in Trump's favor did so based on hope that he would lower prices, including specific promises to bring down food and energy costs. However, as inflation continues to rise, it remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to deliver on these promises.
Despite repeated queries, the Trump White House has not responded to requests for comment on this matter.
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