A power crisis prevails in the Middle East, with the Gulf region potentially offering assistance.
In the heart of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, a silent crisis looms as electricity demand continues to surge. According to a new report by the International Energy Association (IEA), electricity demand in the Mena region has tripled since 2000 and is set to increase by 50% by 2035, driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion.
This exponential growth in demand presents a significant challenge for countries in the region, particularly those struggling to ensure a reliable power supply. The success of implementing solutions depends on partnerships between leading countries in the region and those in need.
The consequences of power shortages are far-reaching. Industries may slow or stop during power cuts, leading to unemployment and poverty. Without a dependable source of electricity, vulnerable populations in the Mena region, particularly during global warming, will suffer due to lack of cooling systems and water desalination.
The IEA report highlights two contrasting scenarios: Gulf countries investing in renewable energy sources, and other countries facing challenges in meeting rising energy demand. The report suggests solutions such as expanding renewable energy options, modernizing grids, and investing in energy storage facilities.
In Iraq, power shortages between 2014 and 2020 cost the economy more than $95 billion, according to the IEA. More than 20 years after the war to topple Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq still does not have consistent energy supplies. In August 2022, the oil-rich Iraqi city of Basra experienced days of angry protests due to power line failures and a fire at an electricity plant causing blackouts amid searing 50°C temperatures.
Conflict-hit Libya has experienced a halving of power generation capacity during its civil war. In Lebanon, years of intermittent electricity have led to a reliance on polluting private generators that sustains criminal groups who profit from black-market fuel. Syria's available power generation capacity in 2022 fell to just 38% of pre-conflict levels, falling far below the country's needs.
The Mena region is a blind spot in discussions about global electricity demand growth, according to Dr Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA. However, there are signs of hope. China, Germany, and Finland are making significant strides in expanding their electricity generation and transmission capacities.
China is capable of expanding its electricity generation and transmission capacities significantly, as it continues to build renewable energy extensively while still adding more coal power to the grid. Germany is investing heavily in grid expansion, with the grid operator Amprion investing billions of euros by 2029 to enhance transmission capacity, which can help stabilize supply domestically and potentially aid neighbors in the region. Finland has expanded its nuclear power with the Olkiluoto 3 plant, contributing substantially to national supply and potentially to regional support.
Initiatives include China's ongoing renewable and coal power expansion, Germany's large-scale grid infrastructure projects like the A-Nord underground cable, and Finland's nuclear plant commissioning for long-term power supply reliability. Iraq has an arrangement with Gulf neighbors to import electricity via the GCC Interconnection Authority, which could be expanded to support other countries.
A failure to guarantee regular power can undermine people's perception of government, potentially leading to loss of legitimacy. In countries where electricity is rationed, prohibitively expensive, or absent for long periods, such shortages act as a dangerous force multiplier, exacerbating social, political, and economic problems.
As the Mena region grapples with the challenges of meeting growing electricity demand, partnerships and investments in renewable energy, grid modernization, and energy storage facilities offer a glimmer of hope for a brighter, more stable future.
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